Two attempts to predict the Jan. 14 presidential election yesterday showed very different results, with Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) leading President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) by 7.4 percentage points in one survey and trailing him by 0.4 percentage points in the other.
In both the predicted share of the vote and possibility of winning categories, xfuture.org, an electronic exchange at National Chengchi University’s Center for Prediction Markets, which uses a methodology similar to that used in futures markets, said Tsai was leading Ma of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).
The exchange’s closing “prices” on Sunday showed that Tsai received 50.4 percent of the vote compared with Ma’s 43 percent and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong’s (宋楚瑜) 7.7 percent.
Photo: Lo Pei-der, Taipei Times
Almost two in three “buyers,” or 65.6 percent, said that Tsai would win the election, while 30.8 percent predicted a victory for Ma, who had been leading Tsai before Soong entered the race on Nov. 4.
The exchange’s predictions found that Ma and Tsai’s advantages were split throughout the nation’s 22 counties and cities, with Tsai holding more than a 20 percent advantage in all six counties governed by her party — Yilan County, Chiayi County, Yunlin County, Greater Tainan, Greater Kaohsiung and Pingtung County.
Tsaid also held leads in five KMT-governed counties — Greater Taichung, New Taipei City (新北市), Changhua County, Chiayi City and Penghu County.
Meanwhile, an opinion poll conducted by Taiwan Thinktank showed that 39.1 percent of respondents said they would vote for Tsai, compared with 39.5 percent who supported Ma and 11.1 percent who supported Soong.
The survey also found that 34.4 percent of respondents would cast their party vote for the KMT, compared with 29.8 percent for the DPP. Support for the PFP and the Taiwan Solidarity Union was 6.9 percent and 2.5 percent respectively.
With the presidential and legislative elections being held on the same day, the survey showed many voters are willing to cast a split ballot, as 39.1 percent of the respondents said they would vote for different parties, although more than half of the respondents said they would vote along party lines.
Almost a third — 32.9 percent — of those who voted for Ma in 2008 said they would vote for Tsai or Soong next month, the survey found, while 11.6 percent of those who supported the DPP four years ago planned to vote for Ma or Soong.
The think tank poll also focused on “negative campaigning” by the major parties, including accusations made by Council of Economic Planning and Development Minister Christina Liu’s (劉憶如) about Tsai’s involvement in the formation of Yu Chang Biologics Co (宇昌生技股份有限公司), now know as TaiMed Biologic Co (中裕新藥股領有限公司).
It found that 58.6 percent regarded Liu’s move as a campaign maneuver and 53 percent said the quick decision by the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office Special Investigation Division to investigate the case was politically motivated.
However, about the same numbers of voters — 39.4 percent for Ma and 32.3 percent for Tsai — said both parties had engaged in negative campaigning.
Soochow University professor Hsu Yung-ming (徐永明) said the attack on Tsai’s integrity, regardless of whether it was a KMT campaign strategy or Liu’s personal decision, could “scare away swing voters” who were unhappy with the strategy of personal attacks.
Former DPP legislator Kuo Cheng-liang (郭正亮) said it was ironic that Tsai’s support rates were higher when she was attacked than when the DPP retaliated with an attack on Ma’s integrity in a bank merger case, which showed that negative campaigning might very well “have the opposite of its desired effect.”
The Taiwan Thinktank survey was conducted between Friday and Saturday and had a margin of error of 3 percent.
Tropical Storm Gaemi strengthened into a typhoon at 2pm yesterday, and could make landfall in Yilan County tomorrow, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. The agency was scheduled to issue a sea warning at 11:30pm yesterday, and could issue a land warning later today. Gaemi was moving north-northwest at 4kph, carrying maximum sustained winds near its center of up to 118.8kph and gusts of 154.8kph. The circumference is forecast to reach eastern Taiwan tomorrow morning, with the center making landfall in Yilan County later that night before departing from the north coast, CWA weather forecaster Kuan Shin-ping (官欣平) said yesterday. Uncertainty remains and
SEA WARNING LIKELY: The storm, named Gaemi, could become a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, with the Taipei City Government preparing for flooding A tropical depression east of the Philippines developed into a tropical storm named Gaemi at 2pm yesterday, and was moving toward eastern Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Gaemi could begin to affect Taiwan proper on Tuesday, lasting until Friday, and could develop into a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, it said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued as early as Tuesday morning, it added. Gaemi, the third tropical storm in the Pacific Ocean this typhoon season, is projected to begin moving northwest today, and be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday, the agency said. Today, there would likely
DISRUPTIONS: The high-speed rail is to operate as normal, while several airlines either canceled flights or announced early departures or late arrivals Schools and offices in 15 cities and counties are to be closed today due to Typhoon Gaemi, local governments announced last night. The 15 are: Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Tainan, Keelung, Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, as well as Yilan, Hualien, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Chiayi, Pingtung, Penghu and Lienchiang counties. People should brace for torrential rainfall brought by the storm, with its center forecast to make landfall on the east coast between tonight and tomorrow morning, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The agency issued a sea warning for the typhoon at 11:30pm on Monday, followed by a land warning at 11:30am yesterday. As of
CASUALTY: A 70-year-old woman was killed by a falling tree in Kaohsiung as the premier warned all government agencies to remain on high alert for the next 24 hours Schools and offices nationwide are to be closed for a second day today as Typhoon Gaemi crosses over the nation, bringing torrential rain and whipping winds. Gaemi was forecast to make landfall late last night. From Tuesday night, its outer band brought substantial rainfall and strong winds to the nation. As of 6:15pm last night, the typhoon’s center was 20km southeast of Hualien County, Central Weather Administration (CWA) data showed. It was moving at 19kph and had a radius of 250km. As of 3pm yesterday, one woman had died, while 58 people were injured, the Central Emergency Operation Center said. The 70-year-old