People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Chief of General Staff Chen Bingde (陳炳德) confirmed earlier this week that China was developing the Dong Feng 21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the first Chinese official to publicly state that the missile is in development.
His comments came as the English-language China Daily reported that the DF-21D had a range of 2,700km, well beyond assessments by the Office of Naval Intelligence last year, which put it at about 1,500km.
The missile, which is capable of hitting moving targets at sea and is seen as a potential threat to aircraft carrier battle groups, would represent a powerful deterrent to the US Navy in the Pacific.
Photo: Reuters
However, Chen said the DF-21D, which can be fired from mobile land-based launchers, was still in the research, development and testing stage, adding that such high-tech devices were difficult to bring to maturity.
“The missile is still undergoing experimental testing and it will be used as a defensive weapon when it is successfully developed, not an offensive one,” Chen told reporters.
Its development “requires funding inputs, advanced technology and high-quality talented personnel ... these are all fundamental factors constraining its development,” Xinhua news agency quoted Chen as saying, in comments that were ostensibly intended for a domestic audience.
Chen made similar comments during a press conference alongside US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen, who is currently visiting China, earlier this week.
Although Chen’s references to a technological bottleneck could be seen as counterproductive in terms of presenting the US and other regional powers with a deterrent, Andrew Erickson, associate professor of strategy at the US Naval War College, said the public mention by a top official was a sign that the DF-21D was likely nearing operational capability.
“Chen would likely not be mentioning China’s ASBM in public if the PLA were not confident that it was maturing effectively and already had reached the necessary development level to begin to credibly shape regional strategic thinking in Beijing’s favor,” he wrote on Tuesday.
In an interview with the Asahi Shimbun last year, Admiral Robert Willard, head of the US Pacific Command, said the DF-21D had reached “initial operational capability,” but it would need several more years of testing.
According to experts, the US and Chinese may have different interpretations of what is meant by operational.
In March, National Security Bureau Director Tsai Der-sheng (蔡得勝) told the legislature that the anti-ship missile was already deployed.
Although the DF-21D’s alleged extended range has yet to be independently confirmed, Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center in Washington, said advances in fuel and in missile aerodynamics, as well as a reduction in payload, made a 2,700km range “quite plausible.”
Earlier this year, the same company that makes the DF-21D announced it would field a 4,000km-range intermediate range ballistic missile by 2015. A 2,700km version of the DF-21D is therefore well within their capabilities, he said.
Asked for comment yesterday, Ministry of National Defense spokesman David Lo (羅紹和) said Taiwan was aware of the progress being made in the development of the DF-21D, but he refused to provide specifics on its range or whether it was already operational.
The missile presents a threat to surface ships in the region and the ministry will develop countermeasures accordingly, he said.
An essential component to China’s ability to track and hit moving targets at sea will be the constellation of electronic intelligence (ELINT) satellites — which can relay positioning information to firing bases — it is believed to be in the process of building.
Although Beijing claims that a number of satellites deployed in recent years are for “space scientific experiments,” defense analysts believe that China’s “scientific” satellites, many of which are developed by firms closely associated with the General Armaments Department, can serve military purposes.
One such satellite, the Shijian-11-03, was launched last Wednesday.
According to Jane’s Defence Weekly , ELINT satellites operating in pairs or greater numbers can conduct “time difference of arrival” assessment or geolocation to track targets over large expanses of territory.
Additional reporting by Rich Chang
BACK TO NORMAL? The move would be part of a gradual easing of curbs monitored by the CECC, which would retain the quarantine mandate if case numbers rise again The Cabinet yesterday approved a plan to next month reopen Taiwan’s borders to all visitors and lift the quarantine mandate for arrivals, provided the nation’s COVID-19 situation does not escalate. The changes are likely to take effect on Oct. 13 as part of a phased easing of border controls that is to start on Thursday next week when a negative polymerase chain reaction test result would no longer be needed, Cabinet spokesman Lo Ping-cheng (羅秉成) told a news conference. Arriving travelers would instead be given four rapid antigen home test kits, Lo said. The three-day quarantine requirement followed by four days of mandatory
The Chinese navy has the ability to blockade Taiwan, but doing so could prompt a coordinated response by the international community to intervene to resolve the crisis for Taiwan, US Vice Admiral Karl Thomas said. “Clearly if they do something that’s non-kinetic, which, you know, a blockade is less kinetic ... then that allows the international community to weigh in and to work together on how we’re going to solve that challenge,” the commander of the US Navy’s 7th Fleet told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Monday. While he could not predict whether China would launch a full-scale
‘NO SURRENDER’: A blockade or outlying island seizure would be an act of war, and China’s drills last month have emboldened Taipei in its response plans, an official said The Republic of China Army Command Headquarters has agreed to purchase 5,000 Kestrel close-range anti-armor missiles worth NT$400 million (US$12.63 million) from the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, according to the military’s latest arms purchase bid notice. The army asked the institute to complete the order within 13 months, a military source said on condition of anonymity. Kestrel missiles are designed to penetrate armored vehicles and are used in anti-surface warfare, as they feature optical sights and night vision, and can be operated in all weather conditions. The missile has a 400m range, or a 150m range when used for breaching brick
COMMITTING TROOPS: The debate over ‘strategic ambiguity’ versus ‘strategic clarity’ in relation to US policy on Taiwan seems to have come to an end, a DPP lawmaker said US military forces would defend Taiwan if there was “an unprecedented attack,” US President Joe Biden said, underscoring the US’ commitment to the nation as Chinese incursions mount near its shores. Asked in a CBS 60 Minutes interview broadcast on Sunday whether US forces would defend Taiwan, Biden replied: “Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack.” Asked to clarify if he meant that unlike in Ukraine, US forces — American men and women — would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, Biden replied: “Yes.” The interview was just the latest time that Biden has appeared to go beyond
RSS