A new study on next year’s presidential election concludes that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) faces an uphill battle as it tries to convince voters it is ready to run the country again.
After two years of gradual decline in the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) popularity under President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), the study said improved economic trends had contributed to the party’s improving poll ratings.
“While we cannot rule out a DPP victory, the KMT is in a more advantageous position at this point to retain the presidency and control of the Legislative Yuan,” said Dafydd Fell, a senior lecturer in Taiwan Studies at the University of London.
Fell’s analysis was released on Tuesday by the Washington-based Brookings Institution.
“Taiwan’s party politics are once again highly competitive. The DPP has recovered from its disastrous setbacks in 2008. Therefore, election results in 2012 are likely to be more like the extremely tight races seen in 2004 than the 2008 walkovers,” Fell said.
However, if major swings in support levels similar to those in the 2000 or 2004 campaigns are seen, “then the DPP does have a genuine chance of regaining the presidency,” he said.
Fell acknowledged that with a year left before the presidential election, “making predictions about the result is a risky business.”
Much would depend on the DPP candidate, who is likely to be either DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) or former premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌), he said, adding that while Tsai had more potential to appeal beyond the DPP’s core constituencies, she had less election experience than either Ma or Su.
Su has a much more impressive political resume and is a powerful speaker, but he could be less successful at attracting the kind of “floating voters” the DPP needs to win over, Fell said.
“Either Tsai or Su has the potential to give Ma a serious test in 2012,” he said.
“As memories of scandals fade and those implicated no longer hold party office, the DPP has gradually cleaned up its image and now actually is perceived as cleaner than the KMT, which has been hit by corruption and vote buying cases since 2008,” he said. “If the issue does become prominent again in 2012, it is more likely to benefit the DPP.”
It would not be surprising if Beijing offered Ma, its preferred candidate, some kind of help, such as withdrawal of some of the missiles targeted at Taiwan or not blocking a proposed free-trade agreement between Taiwan and Singapore, he said.
A DPP victory, Fell said, would be unlikely to result in the kind of tensions seen during the Chen era, because the DPP would accept many of the agreements made by the Ma administration and attempt to avoid what Beijing or Washington would perceive as provocative actions and language.
“A second Ma administration will probably try to continue the gradual improvement of Taiwan-China relations, but avoid any kind of talks that involve mention of unification or political integration,” he said.
“Ma could tell Beijing that he needs to move more slowly and carefully than in the first term. At the same time, however, Ma actually will meet greater domestic resistance to his policy initiatives in both cross-strait relations and other areas,” Fell said.
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