US intelligence agencies, in an unexpected reversal, said they have concluded that Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program four years ago in a concession to international pressure.
The assessment said Iran continues to enrich uranium and still could develop a nuclear weapon between 2010 and 2015.
But the report, a composite of findings from US intelligence agencies called the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran, should bolster those who have said that US President George W. Bush has overstated the threat posed by Iran and weaken the argument for military action.
"Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005," the unclassified summary of the secret report released on Monday said.
It was uncertain whether the development will have an impact on the Bush administration's drive for new sanctions against Iran at the UN. A top US diplomat said on Monday that China may be open to discussing fresh Security Council sanctions against Tehran.
Like Russia, China had been reluctant to support new sanctions; both Russia and China have Security Council vetoes that could stop a US effort to push through tougher sanctions.
Tensions have been escalating between the US and Iran, which Bush in 2002 said belonged to an "axis of evil" with Korea and Iraq.
Speaking of Iran during a news conference last month, Bush said: "If you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them [Iran] from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon."
Rand Beers, who resigned from the National Security Council just before the Iraq war in 2003 and served as security adviser to Senator John Kerry's effort to unseat Bush in the 2004 presidential campaign, said the report should derail any appetite for war on the administration's part and should reinvigorate regional diplomacy.
"The new NIE throws cold water on the efforts of those urging military confrontation with Iran," Beers said.
Senior intelligence officials said on Monday they had failed to detect Iran's halt in nuclear weapons development several months after the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, in time to reflect it in the last NIE, issued in 2005.
One official said Iran is the most challenging country to spy on, harder even than North Korea.
"We put a lot more collection assets against this," the official said, "but gaps remain."
NO HUMAN ERROR: After the incident, the Coast Guard Administration said it would obtain uncrewed aerial vehicles and vessels to boost its detection capacity Authorities would improve border control to prevent unlawful entry into Taiwan’s waters and safeguard national security, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said yesterday after a Chinese man reached the nation’s coast on an inflatable boat, saying he “defected to freedom.” The man was found on a rubber boat when he was about to set foot on Taiwan at the estuary of Houkeng River (後坑溪) near Taiping Borough (太平) in New Taipei City’s Linkou District (林口), authorities said. The Coast Guard Administration’s (CGA) northern branch said it received a report at 6:30am yesterday morning from the New Taipei City Fire Department about a
IN BEIJING’S FAVOR: A China Coast Guard spokesperson said that the Chinese maritime police would continue to carry out law enforcement activities in waters it claims The Philippines withdrew its coast guard vessel from a South China Sea shoal that has recently been at the center of tensions with Beijing. BRP Teresa Magbanua “was compelled to return to port” from Sabina Shoal (Xianbin Shoal, 仙濱暗沙) due to bad weather, depleted supplies and the need to evacuate personnel requiring medical care, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tarriela said yesterday in a post on X. The Philippine vessel “will be in tiptop shape to resume her mission” after it has been resupplied and repaired, Philippine Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, who heads the nation’s maritime council, said
CHINA POLICY: At the seventh US-EU Dialogue on China, the two sides issued strong support for Taiwan and condemned China’s actions in the South China Sea The US and EU issued a joint statement on Wednesday supporting Taiwan’s international participation, notably omitting the “one China” policy in a departure from previous similar statements, following high-level talks on China and the Indo-Pacific region. The statement also urged China to show restraint in the Taiwan Strait. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and European External Action Service Secretary-General Stefano Sannino cochaired the seventh US-EU Dialogue on China and the sixth US-EU Indo-Pacific Consultations from Monday to Tuesday. Since the Indo-Pacific consultations were launched in 2021, references to the “one China” policy have appeared in every statement apart from the
More than 500 people on Saturday marched in New York in support of Taiwan’s entry to the UN, significantly more people than previous years. The march, coinciding with the ongoing 79th session of the UN General Assembly, comes close on the heels of growing international discourse regarding the meaning of UN Resolution 2758. Resolution 2758, adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1971, recognizes the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the “only lawful representative of China.” It resulted in the Republic of China (ROC) losing its seat at the UN to the PRC. Taiwan has since been excluded from
RSS