Academia Sinica, the nation's top research institute, yesterday revised upward its forecast for Taiwan's economic growth this year to 3.24 percent from the 3.08 percent it predicted in December.
The nation's GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to reach 3.13 percent following an 0.89 percent expansion between January and March, said Wu Chung-shu (吳中書), a researcher at Academia Sinica's Institute of Economics.
Third-quarter growth is estimated at 4.72 percent followed by 4.19 percent in the last quarter of the year, Wu said.
While domestic demand is not growing as strong as expected, Wu said the outlook for Taiwan is promising due to rising exports in recent months. "Exports have picked up more than expected to bolster future economic growth."
Following the growth of export orders by 11.45 percent and 14.27 percent in April and May respectively, the nation's exports are expected to post double-digit growth in the next three months, Wu said.
The researcher said China has taken over the US as Taiwan's biggest export destination, with the Chinese market accounting for almost 30 percent of Taiwan's export value, followed by the US with around 20 percent.
"China's markets have become pivotal to Taiwan's economy," Wu said.
Academia Sinica President Lee Yuan-tseh (
In response, Wu said the links will greatly cut down transportation costs to benefit Taiwan's economy in the long term -- from a strictly economic point of view.
The nation's private investments are expected to grow by merely 0.58 percent for the year while public investment is seen to contract by 0.88 percent during the same period, according to the institute.
Commenting on the NT dollar's recent appreciation against its US counterpart, Wu said his view went contrary to the market, which sees the NT dollar appreciating further against the greenback.
"The NT dollar's appreciation against the US dollar should be in tandem with the Singapore dollar," Wu said. He expects the local currency to trade at NT$32.91 against the greenback during the third quarter and NT$32.53 in the last quarter of the year.
As the NT dollar has limited room to appreciate against the US dollar, the nation's exports shouldn't be hardly hit by the exchange rate factor, Wu said.
Joan Zheng, a researcher at JP Morgan Chase Bank in Hong Kong also has a bullish view on Taiwan's economic growth, saying they forecast a 4.3 percent growth for Taiwan's GDP this year.
Both Academia Sinica's and JP Morgan's forecasts are much higher than those made by the government's Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics -- which forecasts GDP growth of 2.55 percent this year.
NO HUMAN ERROR: After the incident, the Coast Guard Administration said it would obtain uncrewed aerial vehicles and vessels to boost its detection capacity Authorities would improve border control to prevent unlawful entry into Taiwan’s waters and safeguard national security, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said yesterday after a Chinese man reached the nation’s coast on an inflatable boat, saying he “defected to freedom.” The man was found on a rubber boat when he was about to set foot on Taiwan at the estuary of Houkeng River (後坑溪) near Taiping Borough (太平) in New Taipei City’s Linkou District (林口), authorities said. The Coast Guard Administration’s (CGA) northern branch said it received a report at 6:30am yesterday morning from the New Taipei City Fire Department about a
IN BEIJING’S FAVOR: A China Coast Guard spokesperson said that the Chinese maritime police would continue to carry out law enforcement activities in waters it claims The Philippines withdrew its coast guard vessel from a South China Sea shoal that has recently been at the center of tensions with Beijing. BRP Teresa Magbanua “was compelled to return to port” from Sabina Shoal (Xianbin Shoal, 仙濱暗沙) due to bad weather, depleted supplies and the need to evacuate personnel requiring medical care, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tarriela said yesterday in a post on X. The Philippine vessel “will be in tiptop shape to resume her mission” after it has been resupplied and repaired, Philippine Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, who heads the nation’s maritime council, said
CHINA POLICY: At the seventh US-EU Dialogue on China, the two sides issued strong support for Taiwan and condemned China’s actions in the South China Sea The US and EU issued a joint statement on Wednesday supporting Taiwan’s international participation, notably omitting the “one China” policy in a departure from previous similar statements, following high-level talks on China and the Indo-Pacific region. The statement also urged China to show restraint in the Taiwan Strait. US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and European External Action Service Secretary-General Stefano Sannino cochaired the seventh US-EU Dialogue on China and the sixth US-EU Indo-Pacific Consultations from Monday to Tuesday. Since the Indo-Pacific consultations were launched in 2021, references to the “one China” policy have appeared in every statement apart from the
More than 500 people on Saturday marched in New York in support of Taiwan’s entry to the UN, significantly more people than previous years. The march, coinciding with the ongoing 79th session of the UN General Assembly, comes close on the heels of growing international discourse regarding the meaning of UN Resolution 2758. Resolution 2758, adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1971, recognizes the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the “only lawful representative of China.” It resulted in the Republic of China (ROC) losing its seat at the UN to the PRC. Taiwan has since been excluded from
RSS