A televised debate for the main Kaohsiung mayoral candidates, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Jui-lung (賴瑞隆) and Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Ko Chih-en (柯志恩), was held on Friday evening, followed at noon yesterday by a debate in Taipei between Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) of the KMT and the DPP’s candidate, Legislator Puma Shen (沈伯洋).
Chiang and Lai have had local government experience to rely on: Shen and Ko needed to demonstrate that they have the vision and the leadership skills needed for the job.
In Taipei, Chiang has the advantage of seeking a second term in a KMT stronghold, but the underdog Shen has been snapping at his heels, and has even overtaken him in recent polls. Chiang is a major KMT figure whose plain delivery and avoidance of providing satisfactory answers in recent interviews has damaged his campaign, especially when compared with Shen’s social media-savvy “Ocean Wave” (洋流).
Chiang’s performance yesterday failed to address his body-language issues: His team had obviously worked hard on that and positive facial expressions, but he spent a large part of his time, especially during the media questions section, referring to his notes, at times reading from them.
On the other hand, Shen was clearly the better prepared with his answers, and on several occasions pointed out that Chiang had failed to answer the question put to him.
Compare that with Friday’s debate in Kaohsiung, where the DPP is historically stronger than the KMT. Lai was well-prepared, but, like Chiang, came off as wooden in his delivery. He focused on the length of his experience in Kaohsiung’s local governance and attacking Ko over her support for the KMT’s amendments to the Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures (財政收支劃分法), which he said disproportionally favored Taipei over Kaohsiung. The Kaohsiung candidates needed to show their vision on solving issues such as traffic congestion, air quality, flooding, social housing, northward drift of jobs and youth unemployment. Ko failed to show how she could deliver on the ambitious vision she offered, but wiped the floor with Lai in terms of her presentation and debating skills.
Lai and Ko referred to previous mayors: Lai spoke of former DPP mayors Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) and Chen Chu (陳菊), as well as and incumbent Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁). Hsieh and Chen Chu enjoyed high approval ratings; Chen Chi-mai is polling at 71.9 percent approval. Ko said that Lai had not mentioned former Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) of the KMT, although he probably did her a favor with the omission: Kaohsiung voters recalled Han before he had served two years of his first term.
As the natural successor of these high approval ratings for DPP leadership, one would expect Lai to win handily on Nov. 28.
Nevertheless, the DPP’s position this year appears fragile. The results of an ETtoday poll released on Thursday showed Lai and Ko to be separated by a statistically negligible 0.1 percentage point. Lai has a support rating of 43.2 percent, compared with Ko’s 43.1. The race is neck-and-neck. The DPP’s core votes remain solid, with 94.2 percent of DPP supporters backing Lai and 97.6 percent of KMT supporters backing Ko. Crucially, 12.7 percent of voters remain undecided and, while 38.8 percent of independent voters said they would vote for Ko, compared with 20.6 percent for Lai, 38.5 percent were undecided. The outcome of the Kaohsiung mayoral race appears to be in the hands of a small group of swing voters.
Two other findings would make encouraging reading for Lai: 51.6 percent of respondents believe he is likely to win, compared with 36.8 percent who favor Ko; and among respondents satisfied with Chen Chi-mai’s performance, 76.4 percent said they support Lai, with only 13.1 percent supporting Ko.
With a race that tight, Lai cannot afford to ride on Chen Chi-mai’s coattails; he must prove how he can transfer his experience to having a vision and leadership qualities.
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