Sun, Aug 16, 2026 page7

• Would Latin American nations embrace guerrilla geopolitics?

  • By Jorge G. Castaneda and Carlos Ominami
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  The wars in Iran and Ukraine have put the spotlight back on guerrilla warfare. Conflicts in which smaller groups, forces, or countries resist or defeat much stronger adversaries using unconventional tactics, weapons and strategies date back to the Scythian resistance to Persian Emperor Darius I. However, this type of fighting is more commonly linked to the Spanish insurgency following Napoleon’s 1808 invasion (guerrilla means “small war” in Spanish).

  While guerrilla warfare can be a defensive response to an attack or incursion, as in 19th-century Spain, it has also been employed by revolutionary groups seeking to overthrow a regime or a colonizer, such as in Algeria, Cuba and Vietnam in the 1950s and 1960s. Soon after the successful Cuban Revolution, Che Guevara wrote Guerrilla Warfare. This short how-to manual, which contained simple practical advice and dubious theoretical assertions, served as a north star for Latin American armed groups in the 1960s. Guevara also tried to implement these teachings (unsuccessfully) in the Congo and Bolivia.

  Many in the West saw guerrilla warfare, particularly the Algerian National Liberation Front’s (FLN’s) fight against France in Algeria and the Viet Cong’s efforts in South Vietnam, through the lens of terrorism. As a result, experts on international law and the law of war, including Richard Falk and the late Charles Chaumont, sought to establish a legal foundation for this type of military activity.

  The resulting legal arguments were contradictory. Chaumont said that weaker combatants were obliged to devise forms of struggle adapted to their military inferiority and their special circumstances. That could mean attacking civilian targets, such as cafes in Algiers. The idea, while dubious, echoed a real dilemma: One man’s terrorist was another’s freedom fighter.

  The guerrilla arsenal has expanded to include autonomous drones and maritime chokepoints, which now define asymmetric warfare in Ukraine and Iran. Their experiences have shown that smaller, weaker countries — not just rebellious factions or armed groups — can use such tactics to resist larger, more powerful adversaries, resulting in stalemates.

  With weapons, intelligence and logistical support from the US and the EU, Ukraine has managed to contain the Russian invasion and even regain some of the territory it lost at the start of the war. Ukraine has also inflicted heavy casualties on the Kremlin’s army and attacked strategic targets deep inside Russia, owing to its impressive advances in drone design, production, and deployment. Whether this would be sufficient to compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept a negotiated peace remains uncertain.

  The ultimate outcome of the US-Israeli war against Iran is just as murky. By closing the Strait of Hormuz and dragging the Gulf countries into the fray, Iran is in a position of strength. Moreover, the Islamic Republic seems more patient than US President Donald Trump, who is desperate for some sort of victory and has already made grave miscalculations. Iran might well emerge as the victor.

  As we have seen before, misreading facts on the ground — on the battlefield and at home — almost invariably leads to defeat. Vietnam eventually won its war against the US, owing to its willingness to endure pain, seemingly unlimited supplies of arms from China and the Soviet Union, and domestic US opposition to the conflict. The FLN’s military victories, coupled with the French people’s growing aversion to colonial wars, forced France to accept Algerian independence. Even Castro and Guevara toppled former Cuban president Fulgencio Batista’s regime partly because public and political sentiment in Havana had turned against Batista.

  The resurgence of guerrilla warfare has underscored the potential benefits of asymmetric warfare in today’s increasingly multipolar world, encouraging countries and regions to assess how they can effectively leverage their unique strengths.

  For example, Latin America is a minor player on the international stage, accounting for 8 percent of the global population and 6 percent of global GDP. However, the region could compensate for its relative weakness by emphasizing its many advantages. These include being the world’s largest net food exporter, possessing the biggest freshwater reserves, and having the highest biodiversity levels. Latin America also holds the world’s largest deposits of copper and lithium, as well as vast reserves of other strategic minerals and rare earths.

  Despite being the world’s most violent region based on homicides per capita, Latin America has long lacked conventional wars between countries: The last such conflict occurred in 1995 between Ecuador and Peru. Moreover, the region has been a nuclear-free zone since the Treaty of Tlatelolco was signed in 1967 (with the possible exceptions of Cuba through the 1980s and the Panama Canal Zone, which was abolished in 1999).

  Unfortunately, recent victories by right-wing candidates in Chile, Ecuador, Peru and Colombia suggest that some in the region would be inclined to acquiesce to the US, rather than pursue active non-alignment. Brazil faces a tight presidential election in October, with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva confronting an extremist conservative challenger and a slight ebb in popularity. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is popular, but presides over a stagnant economy and widespread violence, subjecting her to constant pressure from the US.

  Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney best described the evolving situation at Davos: If middle powers are not at the table, they are on the menu. Latin America is not at the table, but if Trump’s National Security Strategy is anything to go by, it looks like a main dish. In such an environment, it would not be surprising if Guevara’s book finds a new audience.

  Jorge G. Castaneda, a former Mexican foreign minister, is a visiting professor at Sciences Po and the author of America Through Foreign Eyes. Carlos Ominami is a former Chilean minister of economy of and a coauthor of The Non-Aligned World: Striking Out in an Era of Great Power Competition.

  Copyright: Project Syndicate
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