Russia’s northern NATO neighbors are tightening security around dams, power plants and natural gas infrastructure in a sign of mounting concern that Moscow will stage a “false flag” attack on them using Ukrainian drones.
Lithuania last week said that Moscow is considering such a staged attack; Poland, Latvia and Estonia have also warned of acts of sabotage to test NATO’s response at a time when US commitment to the Western military alliance is in question.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov last month said warnings of Russian clandestine attacks are “scare stories” used to justify militarization against Russia.
Illustration: Louise Ting
Poland and the three Baltic states, which all border Russia and have already found Ukrainian drones on their territory, are taking no chances.
“We are not naive, we see the information, we read between the lines and we are doing our homework,” Lithuanian Minister of National Defense Robertas Kaunas said.
Kaunas, the prime minister of Latvia, and four intelligence and company officials from across the region shared new details of intelligence assessments with Reuters and described measures that are being taken to protect infrastructure in response.
“We are increasing the security of our critical infrastructure, we constantly exchange information with our intelligence on what to do next,” Kaunas said.
Last month, Lithuania dispatched the military to back up riot police in securing its liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal, the oil products terminal, a key power link with Poland and the Kruonis Pumped Storage hydro plant.
“We are clearly signaling that, if needed, we will be defending ourselves,” Kaunas said.
Latvia has increased security around all critical infrastructure, including the dam on the Daugava River near Riga and the Incukalns underground gas storage facility, Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs told Reuters in an interview.
“A potential hybrid threat is more likely than it was before,” he said.
Russia in May accused the Baltic states of planning to let Ukrainian drones attack Russia from their territory and pledged to retaliate, prompting denials and protest along with concern that Moscow might stage such an attack to justify a response.
A Baltic intelligence official said assessments indicated Russian military and domestic intelligence agencies are planning a possible false-flag attack on infrastructure in Russia or the Baltics and Poland, with Ukrainian-made drones, to be carried out within days of approval from leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The main concern cited in the assessments was not so much the immediate impact of such an attack as the “political chaos” it could trigger at NATO headquarters in Brussels, as its European members and the US debate how, and whether, to respond, the official said.
Another source, an official from the region, was less definitive, saying a spate of warnings from “allied intelligence” about Russian activity had made an “overwhelming impression” on the Baltic states, but attacks could take place “between today and never.”
Moscow says the West, out of “Russophobia,” routinely accuses it of malign acts without providing evidence. NATO and the Russian embassy in Vilnius did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.
In Poland, the top oil and gas firm Orlen is analyzing alternative gas import routes in case the usual ones are compromised, a person familiar with its operations said.
Orlen imports 80 percent of the country’s gas through the Swinoujscie LNG terminal on the Baltic Sea and an undersea pipeline from Norway that lands nearby. Gaz-System, which owns the infrastructure, is operating under “increased vigilance” there, another person with direct knowledge said.
Orlen declined to comment on the specifics of any preventive measures. A Gaz-System spokesperson said the firm is monitoring the geopolitical situation and responding appropriately.
The state-owned developer of Poland’s first nuclear power plant, Polskie Elektrownie Jadrowe, said forged company documents aimed at confusing stakeholders had appeared and could be traced to somewhere “east of Poland.”
The company is investigating with special services and law enforcement and monitoring for sabotage or other threats at the planned construction site, spokesman Marcin Skolimowski said.
Poland’s power grid operator and an arm of the military last month began increasing security around a power link with Ukraine that helps to stabilize the war-hit country’s grid, which has long been attacked by Russia.
“This is an area where heightened vigilance is required, so we are using all available resources,” the grid operator’s spokesperson Maciej Wapinski said.
It expects the military to eventually help secure its critical infrastructure in other eastern parts of the country.
Mysterious drones have also appeared across Europe. Last week, in Germany, officials found a drone carrying explosives at Leipzig/Halle Airport. German Minister of the Interior Alexander Dobrindt called it a hybrid attack, but did not assign blame. Russia has dismissed suggestions by German politicians and media that it is responsible.
Wojciech Kononczuk, director of the Polish state-funded OSW Centre for Eastern Studies, said that a spate of allegations from Russia that the Baltics are working for Ukraine might be paving the way for Russian attacks there.
He said that with Russian forces bogged down in Ukraine, and Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy and other facilities hurting its economy, the aim would be to regain the upper hand.
The message to Europe would be that if it does not accept Moscow’s demands, then it will spread destabilization — a risky move based on the calculation that there would be a lack of will to respond, Kononczuk said.
Additional reporting by Lily Bayer
The phrase “at sixes and sevens” refers to being in a state of disarray. How telling it is that the two numbers had a special significance for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) last week. The TPP was formally established on Aug. 6, 2019. Thursday was its seventh anniversary and it marked the event at the party’s annual national congress meeting in Taichung on Sunday last week. It was also the week that the latest My Formosa public opinion poll was released, showing that the TPP’s approval rating had fallen 6 percentage points since the beginning of the year. The dip in public
The Taichung District Prosecutors’ Office on Thursday last week indicted a woman surnamed Chen (陳) and a self-proclaimed vaccine broker surnamed Lee (李) on charges of defrauding the Buddhist Compassion Relief Tzu Chi Foundation out of US$30 million by falsely claiming that they could supply COVID-19 vaccines. In 2021, Chen and Lee reportedly approached Tzu Chi and said they could procure Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT) COVID-19 vaccines, prosecutors said. Tzu Chi commissioned a consulting firm represented by Chen to procure 5 million doses and paid a US$30 million commission. Prosecutors in April and May carried out searches and questioned 28 suspects and witnesses, and
In 2018, the Executive Yuan published its blueprint for developing Taiwan into a bilingual nation by 2030, the policy now known as Bilingual 2030. In 2021 the Ministry of Education unveiled its Bilingual Education for Students in College program (BEST), which tasks universities with expanding English-medium instruction (EMI) provision. As the American Institute in Taiwan’s English Language Fellow for 2025-2026, I have spent the past 10 months working alongside professors, teaching faculty and administrators at six universities and education resource centers. The dedication to transform the higher-education landscape is genuine and I am truly inspired by the tireless efforts of my
China’s new exit and entry regulations might signal an increase in the risk that Taiwanese travelers will face, an analyst said on Tuesday last week. The new rules, which take effect on Sept. 15, expand the power of authorities to restrict travel on national, industrial and technological security grounds, question travelers about their reasons for leaving and inspect electronic data. Taiwanese who do not support the ruling party should not dismiss the warnings as fearmongering or propaganda. Beijing applies its “anti-secession” laws indiscriminately, an official said recently while presenting a report on proposed amendments to combat China’s efforts at transnational repression. Chinese
RSS