Sat, Jun 27, 2026 page7

• Latin America’s right needs to deliver now

  • By JP Spinetto / Bloomberg Opinion
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  Abelardo de la Espriella got the win. Now the hard part begins.

  The histrionic 47-year-old lawyer-turned-conservative populist will be Colombia’s next president after defeating leftist rival Ivan Cepeda by a tighter-than-expected margin of one percentage point in Sunday’s runoff. While Cepeda and his ally, President Gustavo Petro have so far refused to concede defeat, the result effectively brings the Andean country’s first experiment with a left-wing government to an end.

  De la Espriella’s victory marks the fifth consecutive win by a right-wing presidential candidate in Latin America since October, a streak that is likely to extend once Keiko Fujimori’s lead over rival Roberto Sanchez — about 40,000 votes, with 99.7 percent of ballots counted — is confirmed in Peru. Brazil, Mexico and Uruguay are now the only bastions of the left in the region, and that cohort may shrink further if Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva fails to secure a record fourth term in October.

  Latin Americanists are divided on the importance of this string of right-wing victories: Do they represent a fundamental shift in the region’s values, ideas and beliefs? Or are they little more than a repudiation of incumbent governments that happened to be on the left?

  Prone to sharp ideological swings, the region’s politics is often described as a permanent pendulum, swinging as the ideological winds shift across the hemisphere.

  Both views have merits. Polls show that the share of people identifying with the right is higher than it has been in more than two decades. Across the region, there is little doubt that voters are rejecting the hard socialist ideas that turned countries such as Venezuela and Bolivia into economic basket cases. Perhaps the clearest sign of how deep that sentiment runs is the announcement of Cuba, one of the world’s last communist regimes, that it will embrace market-liberalization measures in a bid to climb out of the economic black hole it has dug for itself. Fairly or not, the right is also widely seen as better equipped to tackle crime, which consistently ranks among voters’ top concerns, as reflected in the success and larger-than-life influence of El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele.

  At the same time, voters’ patience is wearing thin, and it’s unlikely that ideological affinity is enough to keep governments in power. That is why, after sweeping across much of the continent, the right now must deliver where it matters most: security, affordability and the fight against corruption. Stoking political polarization may help win elections, but it is no substitute for tangible results, especially in the economy.

  Some right-wing leaders have already learned this lesson the hard way. Take Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz, the moderate who unexpectedly ended two decades of socialist rule in Bolivia last year. After a promising start, his attempts to liberalize the economy through free-market reforms triggered fierce social protests, leading to weeks of unrest that severely disrupted economic activity. Conservative Chilean President Jose Antonio Kast’s approval rating has fallen 13 percentage points since taking office in March after a political crisis sparked by a sharp increase in fuel prices. Argentinian President Javier Milei is grappling with some of his lowest approval numbers despite securing a crucial victory in October’s midterm elections.

  With those precedents in mind, De la Espriella should tread carefully. Just as Petro discovered that reshaping Colombia’s institutions was easier said than done, so will De la Espriella. The wealthy, US President Donald Trump-backed businessman known as “El Tigre” will soon find that maverick social media theatrics are no substitute for governing. The country faces daunting challenges, from worsening drug-related violence to rapidly escalating budget constraints. And while never having held public office can be a compelling electoral selling point, it can quickly become a liability when negotiating with a fragmented Congress where de la Espriella has limited representation and the left remains strong.

  The ability of the region’s right-wing governments to build lasting public support while improving living standards will also determine whether their alignment with Washington endures. The White House’s pompous “Shield of the Americas” initiative — a US-led alliance with Western Hemisphere countries that seeks to fight drug cartels, organized crime and illegal immigration — is not enough to cement its partnerships in the region. Latin American voters will have the final say, and few electorates are as politically fickle.

  The right has made history at the ballot box. Unless it delivers safer streets, stronger economies and cleaner government, however, this rightward turn will prove little more than another oscillation of Latin America’s ideological pendulum.

  JP Spinetto is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Latin American business, economic affairs and politics. He was previously Bloomberg News’ managing editor for economics and government in the region. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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