Ten years on from Britain’s shock vote to leave the EU, much of the rancor and vitriol between London and Brussels has gone, but the tensions that drove the historic rupture — over immigration and ideology — remain. Compounding that, the sides are now limited in how far they can go in rebuilding ties due to the advance of populist and far-right parties in Britain, France and Germany, despite the much more volatile world that confronts them today.
Britain finally left the world’s biggest trading bloc an hour before midnight on Dec. 31, 2020, bringing to an end an often turbulent 47-year membership. Since then, Britain’s economy is widely accepted to have been damaged, it is in the grip of the highest prime ministerial turnover in nearly two centuries and the few gains from Brexit — from bespoke trade deals to regulatory independence over financial services and artificial intelligence — are not felt by many.
Michel Barnier, the EU’s negotiator on the Brexit deal and a former French prime minister, told reporters that not all of Britain’s challenges were due to it leaving the EU.
However, “I think that each and every difficulty in the UK is more serious because of Brexit,” he said.
Those politicians and campaigners who led the drive to leave the bloc say it has been a success. Matthew Elliott, the chief executive of the official Vote Leave campaign group, said independence was more important as the world turned more hostile, with the US more unpredictable, China more challenging and Russia at war in Europe.
“In a world which is rapidly changing, it’s useful actually to have your independence so you can have the right deals for your country and do the right alliance at any one time,” Elliott said.
Efforts to improve ties between Britain and Brussels began under former British prime minister Rishi Sunak in 2022 and were stepped up once the more pro-EU Labour government of former British prime minister Keir Starmer was elected in 2024, helping to rebuild trust.
However, the tangible benefits have been limited. Starmer hailed a “new era” in Britain’s relationship with the EU in May last year when they agreed a deal that allowed London to negotiate access for its large defense sector to join a 150 billion euro (US$173 billion) fund to rearm Europe. Along with Britain agreeing to align with EU rules to ease the trade of food and farm goods, electricity and emissions, they were also trying to agree a reciprocal youth visa scheme.
Charles Grant, head of the Centre for European Reform think tank in London, said that progress had been “slow and painful,” reflecting the broader mistrust that still exists.
Britain did not join the SAFE defense scheme, following opposition from France, an outcome that deeply angered Britain and its allies in the bloc, such as Poland.
“Defense and national security is the axis around which we very rarely disagree,” said Kevin Craven, the head of the British defense lobby ADS Group. “So united on Ukraine, united on the Russian threat, but disunited on the means to combat that threat is a really unhelpful situation.”
The Brexit anniversary has turned the focus to what type of relationship Britain and the EU could eventually settle on, whether London would want to join the EU’s single market or customs union, or seek to rejoin the bloc in full one day.
Political analysts have suggested that the EU’s patchwork of agreements with Switzerland could be a model as it has the potential to provide a level of EU market access while giving the British government some control over who could move to Britain.
Grant said that officials in Brussels were hostile to the idea, although that could change if geopolitical challenges mount.
However, Brussels would be hamstrung by Marine le Pen’s National Rally in France and Germany’s AfD, which could demand their own opt outs if they ever got into power, he said.
At the same time, in Britain the veteran Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage has led opinion polls for more than a year and has threatened to tear up any closer agreement.
Opinion polls show that a majority of people in Britain regret leaving the EU and want to rejoin the bloc, but a YouGov poll this month showed that support fell away once people were asked about the possible implications or costs of rejoining, particularly around immigration and the future of the pound. That could constrain those Labour figures who hope to replace Starmer as prime minister, such as leading rival Andy Burnham, from making bolder promises on Britain’s relationship with the EU.
Barnier said that Brexit was a “lose-lose” for both sides and bemoaned the loss of a heavyweight member state that could lead on diplomacy, defense and trade.
He said the two sides needed to rebuild ties based on the conditions in the world now, not 10 years ago, “because of Mr [US President Donald] Trump on one side, because of Mr [Russian President Vladimir] Putin on the other side, because of the Chinese.”
However, the same tensions that existed throughout Britain’s membership exist today. Even pro-EU British officials see it as an inflexible, legalistic bureaucracy while their EU counterparts will not forget the sight of Farage haranguing and insulting EU politicians during his 20 years in Brussels.
A senior Labour lawmaker said the government was trying to pass legislation that would give ministers the power to implement or align with EU rules, helping to hold the two sides together.
However, the lawmaker said that the government needed some “wins” from Brussels, starting at a joint summit next month.
“No more messing around,” they said. We need “some things that we could sell, then it would give us the energy and the focus to be able to get to the next stage.”
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