This month, Europeans came to understand that their closest ally, the US, is no longer interested in the kind of trustful cooperation that has defined the transatlantic relationship for eight decades. By disrespecting allies, attempting to strong-arm Ukraine and meddling in European domestic affairs, the US has transformed itself from Europe’s most important partner and Ukraine’s most ardent supporter into something resembling an adversary.
To be sure, as US President Donald Trump begins negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine’s fate, no one — not even the Americans — really knows what strategy the US is pursuing. However, this month’s Munich Security Conference in Germany made it clear that Europe can no longer ignore the US’ longstanding grievance over the distribution of defense spending within NATO. Nor is spending the only issue. As the US shifts its focus to Asia (and to itself), there is a large political and military leadership role for Europe to fill.
The scale of the US strategic shift is apparent in its approach to Ukraine. Trump has positioned the US as a mediator between the aggressor Russia, and the victim, Ukraine. Previously a strong supporter of Ukraine, the US is now bullying the beleaguered country into negotiations while extorting it to give up control of its critical minerals. While the administration of former US president Joe Biden worked as closely as possible with European allies to coordinate support for Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and preparations for Ukraine’s reconstruction, the Trump administration sees no role for Europeans in the negotiations.
Illustration: Mountain People
Europeans learned plenty about the new administration’s geopolitical stance from US Vice President J.D. Vance’s speech in Munich, where he cynically voiced support for Germany’s pro-Russian far right just a week before federal elections.
After having a brief deer-in-the-headlights moment, European leaders have started moving to preserve stability and sovereignty on the continent. The informal emergency meeting in Paris on Monday last week was an important first step in a longer process that now must accelerate. Incidentally, the Paris meeting took place just a week after the city hosted the AI (artificial intelligence) Action Summit, which gave Europeans an opportunity to discuss technological competitiveness and attract new investment. As different as the two meetings were in content and structure, both speak to the same challenge: Europe must take its sovereignty into its own hands.
While Ukraine represents the most immediate challenge, securing European sovereignty would be a much larger and longer-term project. Europeans must systematically rethink their approach to security. If Ukraine and Russia do reach a deal, it would fall largely on Europeans to ensure that it holds, since the US wants to reduce its commitments and is no longer a reliable partner. In this scenario, Europeans would need to strike a balance between enforcing the peace in Ukraine and preserving the capacity to defend other territories bordering Russia — such as in Scandinavia or the Baltics.
In the longer run, Europeans would be much better off if Ukraine becomes an essential yet controllable part of European defense. With its battle-hardened army, innovative defense sector, and remarkably resilient and creative population, Ukraine could be a significant source of strength for Europe if it can be stabilized and integrated.
Willing and able Europeans must not delay in deepening security and defense cooperation on the continent. That means developing a new continental security concept to allow burden shifting within NATO, which would remain the best framework for collective defense even if the US steps back or leaves the alliance.
The countries represented at the emergency meeting in Paris and at a second meeting two days later can serve as the core to move things along. France, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, Scandinavia, and the Baltic states (which face the most direct threat) all seem ready. So, too, does the UK, which should be considered an integral part of the group, given its strong support for Ukraine, key role within NATO and status as a nuclear power.
Yet as crucial as NATO would be, the EU also must step up its own efforts to defend its borders and preserve liberal democracy at home. Although the EU would not transform into a defense union or create a European army, it can do more to provide critical public goods. Promoting energy security and domestic innovation would be essential in the years ahead. Shared strategies, with joint funding, can position Europeans as much stronger players in these highly contested sectors.
Europeans need to rebuild their muscles, not only because old alliances are crumbling, but also because the geopolitical landscape is shifting. The situation in the US should push Europeans to strengthen relations with other important partners such as Japan, South Korea and Australia, and to be more confident in managing their own relations with China.
Munich made clear that the long era of post-World War II Atlanticism is over. A powerful reversal is underway, and it would be wishful thinking to hope that the damage done by the Trump administration can simply be repaired in the future. Europe must build on its strengths and assume responsibility for its own security within NATO.
The EU, the UK and Norway have more than 500 million people and collective purchasing power greater than that of the US. Despite domestic political tensions, they have the institutional stability that navigating this moment of crisis requires. Europe has the resources to catapult itself forward in technology, the digital economy, defense and other critical sectors, and Munich showed that it must waste no time in doing so.
Daniela Schwarzer, a member of the executive board of Bertelsmann Stiftung, is a former director of the German Council on Foreign Relations and former executive director for Europe and Central Asia at the Open Society Foundations.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
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