Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) officially began its two-week presidential race on Thursday last week. The nine candidates took part in a debate two days after the announcement and the winner of the election would be announced on Friday.
In the fierce debate, Shinjiro Koizumi, the second son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, and Shigeru Ishiba, former LDP secretary-general, both leading in the polls, were attacked from all sides.
Ishiba, who is making his fifth bid to lead the party, was calm and composed.
Shinjiro Koizumi, making his first bid to lead the party, frequently provided irrelevant answers dubbed “nonsense talk” by Japanese media who said he was incapable of delivering a convincing narrative.
Polling published by the Japanese-language Yomiuri Shimbun on Tuesday last week, which surveyed the party’s rank-and-file members and party supporters showed that Ishiba had the support of 26 percent of respondents, closely followed by Japanese Minister of State for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi at 25 percent, and Shinjiro Koizumi third with 16 percent.
Other candidates only garnered support in the single-digit percentage points.
Out of 352 LDP Diet members who responded in the same poll, Shinjiro Koizumi was backed by 45 of them, followed by Takaich at 29 and Ishiba at 26.
In the projected tally for all voters, including party members, supporters and Diet members, Takaichi and Ishiba were tied with 123 votes, closely followed by Koizumi with 105 votes.
This showed that Koizumi is not as popular among the party’s rank-and-file members and party supporters as Takaichi.
This suggests a trend.
Koizumi does not outshine in a three-horse race.
If there is no clear winner in the first round of voting, leading to a top-two runoff, the following matches are expected.
First: Koizumi versus Ishiba.
According to Yomiuri Shimbun’s poll, Koizumi is the most popular among LDP Diet members, with Ishiba far behind. Ishiba would likely lose in a runoff against Koizumi.
Second: Ishiba versus Takaichi.
If Takaichi rises above the others, the conservatives would support her. In this runoff, Ishiba would barely stand a chance against the attack of the diehard conservative followers of former deputy prime minister Taro Aso’s faction and late prime minister Shinzo Abe’s faction.
Takaichi would likely become the first female prime minister of Japan in such a scenario.
Third: Koizumi versus Takaichi.
If Ishiba loses in the first round, Aso’s faction would likely support Takaichi and former prime minister Yoshihide Suga’s faction would likely support Koizumi in the runoff — resulting in a contest between the two kingmakers.
If Takaichi garners support from Abe’s faction, she would have a competitive edge.
No matter who wins this election, the Japanese government would continue being a staunch US ally supporter of Taiwan.
This would not easily change given the general public is anti-China and pro-Taiwan.
The LDP presidential election is diverse and competitive: old versus young; male versus female; conservative versus reformist — and internecine strife. It is riveting.
Voters get to choose from many capable candidates. Opinions might differ, but they are reasonable differences.
The race would no doubt end peacefully, as a river runs into the sea. After all, it is a Japanese-style election.
Wang Hui-sheng is chief director of the Kisei Ladies’ and Children’s Hospital in Japan and a founding member of the East Asian Research Institute.
Translated by Fion Khan
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