As a former Argentine security minister, Patricia Bullrich is best known for her record of cracking down on drugs and violent crime. Now she is trying to convert that steely reputation into votes for the presidency of a country on the edge of an economic precipice.
With Argentina sinking deeper into turmoil as annual inflation exceeds 100 percent and its currency tumbles in value, Bullrich says the nation is crying out for her kind of hardline approach to address its spiraling challenges. Polling suggests voters might agree.
“Argentina needs change,” Bullrich, 66, said in an interview in her Buenos Aires campaign headquarters overlooking the historic Plaza de Mayo square, just a block from the presidential palace. “It needs a change in culture, from populism to a rules-based capitalism. That will demand a strong character.”
Illustration: Yusha
She is one of two main candidates vying to represent the opposition Juntos por el Cambio coalition in October elections that polls all say will be calamitous for the ruling Peronist party, opening the path to a change of government. With Argentina already in receipt of a US$44 billion IMF program that has been unable to halt its slide, the political outlook is as volatile as the economic and financial one, threatening more turbulence ahead.
Against that backdrop, Bullrich’s tough tone helps to differentiate her, and not simply because security is among the top issues for voters, said Juan Germano, director of pollster Isonomia.
“The narrative she offers is in line with the current sense of crisis,” he said. “She reflects the times.”
Argentines are used to uncertainty, but the present moment is especially precarious. The economy is nosediving into a recession as persistent triple-digit inflation wipes out wages. To compound matters, a record drought has destroyed precious crops, such as corn, soybeans and wheat, that provide essential export dollars.
Such is the carnage that the Peronist ticket remains blank so far, after Argentine President Alberto Fernandez and Argentine Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner said they would not contest the election. A firebrand outsider, Javier Milei, is making inroads with a tear-it-all-down platform keyed to the relentless stream of bad news.
Some analysts see her as the answer for voters who cannot stomach Milei’s antics, would not countenance the Peronists and are impatient with the carefully choreographed, consensus-building approach of her main rival, two-time Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Rodriguez Larreta. While Bullrich and Milei are tapping the same well of disaffection, she stresses respect for institutions and the rule of law.
“In elections, candidates say they’re going to hunt a bear,” said Joaquin de la Torre, a senator and longtime mayor who is vying to run as governor of Buenos Aires Province on her ticket. “But voters need to look at who already has a bear skin on their back.”
Bullrich “has the courage to do what it takes,” he added.
To counter an economic crisis she says is “getting out of hand,” Bullrich proposes unwinding currency controls she sees as a key culprit of the country’s woes.
They are “a restriction for all the investments and the growth we need,” and removing them would allow exports to recover and shore up reserves, she said.
More elusive is a detailed plan by Bullrich, or any other candidate, to unpick the cobweb of controls that need to be disarmed like a mess of wires on a time bomb.
As is common in Argentina, emergency currency controls enacted in 2019 by then-Argentine president Mauricio Macri at the end of his crisis-rocked government became permanent under Fernandez, who added a litany of taxes, restrictions and other tools to put the peso in a straitjacket. The limitations have pushed Argentines into the black market, where the peso’s exchange rate is about double the official rate.
While Bullrich — who served as security minister under Macri — said the specifics of her plan would depend on the rapidly evolving exchange rate, she is eyeing a floating peso within certain bands. She is also studying options for a “bi-monetary” system like in Uruguay or Peru, where the US dollar formally coexists with the local currencies.
To be sure, her proposal on controls resembles Macri’s playbook, which ultimately led the country to seek IMF support after a currency rout. The lesson, she says, is to carry out reforms swiftly and clearly, and that the Macri administration’s mistake was not lowering government spending immediately, or daring to make key social and labor reforms.
That is where Bullrich says she would be different, offering what her supporters argue is a key distinction to Larreta. An August primary is to decide the nomination.
Humberto Schiavoni, a Juntos por el Cambio senator who has publicly backed Bullrich, praised her “courage, conviction and determination to confront problems and go forward with the changes the country needs.”
If so, it was honed early.
In her teens, she heeded the call of socialist ideals during Argentina’s military dictatorship and joined the Peronist Youth, participating in an event to commemorate the return of then-exiled Juan Domingo Peron that led to security forces shooting at his supporters. During the years of repression of leftist organizers, she spent time in prison and in exile in Brazil, Mexico and Europe.
She is open about her actions then, disavowing the movement’s ideals, if not the political activity of those days.
“I quickly realized that path led to a country without growth, without rule of law, and I moved apart,” she said.
She left the Peronists in 1997 to start her own party, the Union for All. In 1999 she held posts as labor and social security minister for Fernando de la Rua’s center-left government, which ended in the 2001 debt default and economic crisis.
Today, she cites former German chancellor Angela Merkel as a political figure she admires for “her prudence and her strength,” along with Winston Churchill, a famously pugnacious politician. Like Merkel, she holds a doctorate, in her case in political science.
After Macri was voted out in 2019, Bullrich traveled the country criticizing lengthy COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, and speaking out against corruption and a lack of security. Farmers, an important constituency, were among the first to embrace her.
If elected, her presidency would start with a slew of reforms to cut red tape and promote formal job creation by overhauling labor laws, said her public policy director Alberto Fohrig, who sat in on the interview.
She would aim to make the central bank legally independent and seek a “buffer” of fresh funds to stave off concerns about reserves, which would likely lead to talks with the IMF over the existing plan.
She would seek to honor obligations with private bondholders, looking to defer payments, but without a restructuring that would directly hit bond prices.
“We are not going to default,” she said. “Argentina has a bad image in the world for all the defaults we made in our history.”
Changing the country’s economic trajectory is far from straightforward, and investors are watching her closely. Bullrich came top in an informal poll of voting intentions among top Argentine business leaders, with 28 ballots to Larreta’s 25 votes, Milei’s three and two for Fernandez.
Bullrich knows where such leaders are coming from: Her prominent lineage stretches from Argentine independence hero Juan Martin de Pueyrredon to her great uncle, who founded the neoclassical cattle market where prize bulls were once auctioned and which now serves as one of the capital’s ritziest shopping malls, Patio Bullrich.
All the same, she stresses a determination to go her own way, saying that she offers the “guarantee of courage” Argentina needs right now.
“I never had the bias of someone who comes from a family of well-known surnames,” she said. “I was always in the dirt, a bit wild.”
A series of strong earthquakes in Hualien County not only caused severe damage in Taiwan, but also revealed that China’s power has permeated everywhere. A Taiwanese woman posted on the Internet that she found clips of the earthquake — which were recorded by the security camera in her home — on the Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu. It is spine-chilling that the problem might be because the security camera was manufactured in China. China has widely collected information, infringed upon public privacy and raised information security threats through various social media platforms, as well as telecommunication and security equipment. Several former TikTok employees revealed
Two sets of economic data released last week by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) have drawn mixed reactions from the public: One on the nation’s economic performance in the first quarter of the year and the other on Taiwan’s household wealth distribution in 2021. GDP growth for the first quarter was faster than expected, at 6.51 percent year-on-year, an acceleration from the previous quarter’s 4.93 percent and higher than the agency’s February estimate of 5.92 percent. It was also the highest growth since the second quarter of 2021, when the economy expanded 8.07 percent, DGBAS data showed. The growth
At the same time as more than 30 military aircraft were detected near Taiwan — one of the highest daily incursions this year — with some flying as close as 37 nautical miles (69kms) from the northern city of Keelung, China announced a limited and selected relaxation of restrictions on Taiwanese agricultural exports and tourism, upon receiving a Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) delegation led by KMT legislative caucus whip Fu Kun-chi (傅崑萁). This demonstrates the two-faced gimmick of China’s “united front” strategy. Despite the strongest earthquake to hit the nation in 25 years striking Hualien on April 3, which caused
In the 2022 book Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, academics Hal Brands and Michael Beckley warned, against conventional wisdom, that it was not a rising China that the US and its allies had to fear, but a declining China. This is because “peaking powers” — nations at the peak of their relative power and staring over the precipice of decline — are particularly dangerous, as they might believe they only have a narrow window of opportunity to grab what they can before decline sets in, they said. The tailwinds that propelled China’s spectacular economic rise over the past