Malaysia’s election today is likely to be close, with almost a thousand candidates from dozens of parties vying for the hearts and minds of a record 21 million voters, via their stomachs.
Voters, many struggling to afford meat and other food amid soaring inflation, are looking for whichever party can most convincingly promise economic and price stability.
However, other factors are also at stake in the contest for 222 parliamentary seats, including an end to the political chaos that has engulfed the Southeast Asian nation over the past four years.
Illustration: Kevin Sheu
The ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition hopes to secure a clear majority and redeem itself following its defeat in the 2018 polls, when it was thrown out after six decades in power because of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) corruption case.
Four years and three governments later, the billion-dollar graft scandal has taken a back seat on the campaign trail as Malaysians brace for the highest annual inflation in five years.
“I can close one eye toward corruption, as long as they make sure we’re taken care of,” said Ahmad Zaini, a ride-share driver in Selangor, the richest state in the country. “Just look at the price of chicken, how are we supposed to eat?”
Malaysia’s favorite meat has become unaffordable for some after higher costs for imported feed and demand from overseas pushed the price above the government’s cap of 9.40 ringgit (US$2.06) per kilogram. The price ceiling was at 8.90 ringgit in June.
The ruling coalition’s main contender is Malaysian leader of the opposition Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance, which pulled off a shock victory in 2018, but fell apart after 22 months in government due to infighting.
Other alliances in the fray are led by former Malaysian prime ministers Muhyiddin Yassin and Mahathir Mohamad.
Both main alliances are promising cash handouts to help offset higher costs, with BN pledging at least 2,208 ringgit a month. That is a welcome offer for the 6 million young, first-time voters who are especially vulnerable to rising costs.
The median salary of 20 to 24-year-olds was 1,464 ringgit last year, less than the national minimum wage of 1,500 ringgit, according to data from the Department of Statistics Malaysia.
That is well below the cost of living estimated by the Central Bank of Malaysia in 2018, which suggested the living wage for couples living in Kuala Lumpur without children should be 4,500 ringgit a month, and with two children, it should be 6,500 ringgit.
The crowded battlefield means the country’s political problems might not be solved in this election. If no clear majority emerges, the main coalitions could be forced to negotiate with minority parties to form a government. Although the 1MDB saga might have been left behind, new political scandals are dogging several leading candidates.
Whoever wins would have to deal with a slowdown in the economy after a rapid, but uneven rebound from the pandemic. Gross domestic product grew at a region-beating 14.2 percent in the last quarter thanks to tailwinds from commodities, oil and robust manufacturing, but inflation has almost doubled since the start of the year, despite subsidies on food and fuel.
The central bank’s growth target for next year is 4 percent to 5 percent compared with an estimate of more than 7 percent this year, to reflect the weakness of the global outlook.
“Impending global headwinds may be the risk to watch” for a recovery that has been uneven across different sectors, said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd in Singapore.
To try to topple BN again, Anwar’s alliance is targeting swing states such as Perak, on the west coast of mainland Malaysia. Perak has changed provincial governments four times since 2008. With BN’s share of the state’s 24 parliamentary seats slipping from 14 to 11 in the past three national elections, PH hopes to wrest back the state.
“Perak has swung back and forth since 2008, and Anwar’s decision to contest here has brought back a lot of interest in the election,” said Wong Chee Heng, a retired teacher from Taiping, a town in the state. Wong said he backs the opposition.
PH has been gaining traction with voters. The alliance could emerge with the biggest share of votes, a survey by YouGov showed last week. The poll also featured growing support for Muhiyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional (PN) party among the ethnic Malay majority.
PN’s rally in Kuala Lumpur on Monday night drew large crowds despite the heavy rain, with supporters staying late to hear Muhyiddin and leaders including Malaysian Minister of International Trade and Industry Mohamed Azmin Ali.
As in 2018, Anwar’s PH is relying on an anti-corruption ticket. A scandal over procurement of warships that broke out in August and an investigation into United Malays National Organisation President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s foundations is turning some voters away from the ruling coalition.
“I’m clearly for the Pakatan Harapan coalition as they stand against corruption,” said 22-year-old Fikri Irfan, who braved heavy rain to attend a rally by the main opposition alliance at Tangga Batu in Malacca. “I would like to give Anwar Ibrahim another chance.”
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