As tensions grew between Russia and Ukraine toward the end of last year, with frequent rumors of a possible war, the US and other NATO countries during mediations with Russia gave the impression that they might intervene militarily, and threatened to impose economic and trade sanctions.
However, they could not quell Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambition or prevent the flames of war.
As the war progresses after the failure of diplomatic and economic sanctions, these countries seem to have drawn back from the idea of armed intervention.
Consequently, Taiwan, which is in a similar situation to Ukraine, has suddenly become a focus worldwide, and even the second-most popular search term on Twitter.
On Thursday, just as war between Russia and Ukraine broke out, the Taipei Forum held a seminar on Taiwan’s security.
Speaking at the event, former National Security Bureau director-general Tsai Der-sheng (蔡得勝) said that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is to hold its 20th National Congress in autumn.
Maintaining stability is currently more important to the CCP than maintaining sovereignty, so the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is unlikely to cause any trouble before or immediately after the congress, he said.
Although this conclusion is based on various sources of information, in light of the forecasts and the reactions of the US and other NATO countries to the situation in Ukraine, could the assumption that the PLA does not plan to intrude on Taiwan before the congress be equally wrong?
Given the existence of opposition to Chinese President and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping (習近平) within the CCP, if the 20th National Congress signifies Xi’s final deployment of power, he might use such means as “unifying with Taiwan by force” to smoothly achieve his goals at the congress. By “maintaining sovereignty” to support his aim of “maintaining stability,” he might put himself in a more favorable strategic position.
At a time when other countries are fretting over the situation in Ukraine, there is no guarantee that the CCP will not use the opportunity to take a risk.
Although there are geographical and other differences between the Russia-Ukraine situation and that which exists across the Taiwan Strait, in both cases a major power is using its military might to threaten a weaker opponent.
Taiwan should neither put its security in the hands of outsiders, nor believe that it is safe. Rather, it should be prepared for war and not let its guard down in the face of the enemy.
As Taiwan specialist Ryan Hass wrote in the Taipei Times, Taiwan must strengthen its political unity and national security to counter the fatalism that Beijing aims to induce (“Ryan Hass On Taiwan: Learning the right lessons from Ukraine for Taiwan,” Feb. 21, page 8).
In early 1941, before then-US president Franklin Roosevelt intervened in World War II, he proposed the Lend-Lease Act to help countries resisting the Axis powers to fight their common enemy — a decision that had far-reaching effects.
Now that war has broken out between Russia and Ukraine, let us hope that the US, Japan and other countries do something more effective for security in the Taiwan Strait to help Taiwan resist the threat from communist China.
Sung Chi-cheng is an assistant professor at Shih Hsin University’s Center for General Education and a former colonel instructor at the National Defense University’s War College.
Translated by Julian Clegg
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