Support for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has plummeted almost 15 percentage points over the past three months, a Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation survey showed on Monday.
Respondents identifying as undecided voters stand at 48.2 percent, compared with a combined total of 47.1 percent of voters identifying with either the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) or the DPP, the poll found.
The foundation said that this shift in party identification suggests a fundamental reshaping of the voter base that the DPP has built over the past two-and-a-half years.
However, it is unclear as to how permanent this shift will be, or how worried it should make the DPP.
Taiwan is not even halfway through its presidential election cycle, and the collapse in the DPP’s support must be seen in the context of a local COVID-19 outbreak that occurred between the latest survey and the foundation’s previous poll in March.
The latest poll tells a more interesting story with regard to the voter identification garnered by the KMT, especially when coupled with increased support for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
Party identification figures over the past five years have shown that KMT support has hovered at about 20 percent, with the exception of between late 2019 and last year’s presidential election, when party identification would be expected to rise. The increase in KMT support was mirrored by a corresponding increase in support for the DPP.
Even amid falling support for the government over its handling of the outbreak, the KMT has been unable to wrest DPP supporters to its cause. KMT identification stands at 18.9 percent, the lowest since June 2016, when DPP support was at a high of 51.6 percent before declining until late 2019.
That decline corresponded with voter frustration over controversial, clumsily introduced reforms during President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) first term, but support returned ahead of her re-election and remained high until the most recent collapse.
While KMT support has remained low, voter identification with the DPP has swayed in tune with the number of voters identifying as undecided.
When the government introduces unpopular policies, voter identification with the DPP falls. When it is perceived to be doing well, or in the run-up to a presidential election, DPP support returns.
There is nothing counterintuitive to this, but neither does it suggest a structural shift in the two-party political dynamic. As the collapse is easily attributable to a specific cause, one that has directly affected everyone in the nation, there is no mystery involved, and no reason that DPP support would not return, especially if the government brings the outbreak under control soon.
Comparing the latest poll with that from March, the DPP has lost prospective voters who declare strong or a moderate identification with the party, losing 4.4 and 10.5 percentage points respectively.
Meanwhile, the KMT has lost popularity among those who say they have a strong identification, falling 2.1 percentage points, while more prospective voters said that they moderately support the party, gaining 2 percentage points.
The KMT has not only failed to capitalize on the DPP’s waning support, but its own base has also weakened, in qualitative and quantitative terms.
Instead, support for the TPP has increased more than 7 percentage points to 15.6 percent, and its new prospective voters are mostly former KMT supporters: Almost one-third of TPP supporters identify with the KMT, compared with only 6.4 percent who identify with the DPP.
The electorate is disillusioned with the DPP, but claims regarding the end of two-party politics appear to have been exaggerated. The question is, will the TPP take the KMT’s place?
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