Every year during the Lunar New Year holidays, the highlights in the political realm are usually the distribution of hongbao (紅包), or lucky red envelopes, by high-profile politicians, and the drawings of divination slips by a few popular temples to foretell the nation’s fortune for the coming year.
Two divination slips stand out from the rest that were drawn this year. One was a so-called “down-down slip” (下下籤), the worst of its kind, drawn at the Nankushen Daitian Temple (南鯤鯓代天府) in Tainan, which indicates that the road ahead is full of challenges and hardship.
The slip has attracted much attention, largely because the temple gained fame with a slip drawn in 2015 that read: “Wu Zeitian (武則天) [China’s first and only female emperor] will ascend the throne,” triggering speculation that the nation was to have its first female president.
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) won last year’s presidential race by a landslide.
The other divination slip was drawn at a Matsu temple in Yunlin County, which appears more promising for it suggests that if determined, “one can turn iron into gold.”
A folk religion expert later said the slip could mean that despite the obstacles ahead, the government, with firm determination and clear communication with the public, could see things turn out for the better.
Folk traditions aside, the government does not need divination slips to tell it that the coming year is going to be a bumpy road. After all, the three most closely watched issues are pension reform, the proposed legalization of same-sex marriage and cross-strait relations; none of which will be easy.
According to the Presidential Office’s pension reform committee’s timetable for overhauling the nation’s pension funds, a draft bill is expected by next month at the earliest and by the end of May at the latest — a clear attempt to meet Tsai’s campaign pledge to push for pension reform during her first year in office.
Despite the committee’s promise to factor in all opinions voiced at the nation’s first national affairs conference on pension reform, held last month, some of the suggestions are actually far more drastic than the government’s proposals and could draw massive opposition if adopted — such as phasing out the controversial 18 percent preferential savings rate for retired public employees within three years, instead of the government’s proposed six years.
With regard to the gay marriage issue, proponents are expected to be active in pushing for passage of amendments designed to recognize same-sex unions — which are currently frozen pending cross-caucus negotiations — before the end of the year.
There is urgency to push for passage this year because the chance of contentions clearing the legislative floor would become slimmer as next year’s local elections draw closer.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is likely to want to shelve any issues that could have political repercussions and hurt its chances in the local polls, even though delaying tactics could anger same-sex marriage supporters and spark further conflicts.
As for cross-strait ties, which have been strained since Tsai took office, they could be exacerbated once US President Donald Trump shifts his focus to China from immigration and domestic issues.
Recent incidents have shown that Beijing is seeking to up its game against Taipei, though whether this is due to Trump’s provocative rhetoric and actions about Taiwan ahead of his inauguration or China’s growing impatience with the DPP government is unclear.
While many people believe that “man is the master of his own fate,” the Tsai administration is facing several situations that might take require superhuman, or supernatural, efforts to defuse.
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