Last week saw three fascinating events that will have a considerable impact on globalization as we know it: US President Donald Trump’s inauguration, the UK’s plan for a “hard” Brexit and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) speech at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.
First, consider British Prime Minister Theresa May’s announcement that the UK is going to make a clean break with the EU and not do “anything that leaves us half-in, half-out.”
May said that the UK was prepared to face all the consequences of a hard Brexit.
May’s Brexit plan arises from the rejection of Britons, in last year’s referendum, of the EU’s requirements of freedom of movement of goods, capital and people, and it expresses their distrust of globalization.
On Friday last week the US entered the era of anti-globalist Trump. The incomes of middle-class and lower-class Americans have been stagnating for quite a few years and their quality of life keeps going downhill. This is particularly so in the Great Lakes-Rust Belt region, which has been suffering as factories move elsewhere or close down altogether.
Trump won the election on the crest of a populist tide, and the economic and trade officials he has appointed are mostly trade protectionists who support increased tariffs.
The two sides of the Atlantic are echoing one another with their populist complaints about globalization and they are challenging the elite-controlled process of globalization.
It is at this moment that Xi took the stage at the rich-people’s gathering in Davos to play the role of globalization’s guardian.
He issued a warning to trade protectionists, accusing them of locking themselves in a dark room, which he said might keep out the wind and rain, but will also block out light and air.
Xi’s words were greeted with applause from the rich elite, who have been shocked by the anti-globalization trend. They seem to have found a new hero in Xi.
They are willing to believe that China can be a force for stability in a changing world, but they completely disregard Xi’s brutal repression of the democratic movement and human-rights lawyers who are pursuing sunshine policies in China and they have no regard for all the Chinese who are choking in a haze of pollution and longing for clean air.
Xi even praised multilateralism and said that countries should not select or bend rules as they see fit. These words are ironic coming from a national leader who does not respect an international court’s’ arbitration on the South China Sea, continues to construct artificial islands under force of arms and repeatedly uses military force to challenge neighboring countries’ sea and air sovereignty.
However, Xi’s words also expose China’s worries.
Although China is the biggest beneficiary of the global order advocated and upheld by the US, it keeps challenging the bottom line of this pax Americana, forcing other countries to accept a Chinese exceptionalism under which China does not have to play by the rules.
The leaders of advanced countries have been powerless to refuse this behavior, but now there is Trump with his tough attitude.
Former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger established the US strategy of joining hands with China to oppose Russia in the spirit of ganging up with No. 3 to keep No. 2 in check. This strategy has been in place since 1972, when the US and China released the Shanghai Communique, but it has become outdated now that Russia is a weaker country and it is long overdue for adjustment.
However, US-China policy has all along been dominated by those who favor engagement with China, and former US president Barack Obama’s weakness prevented his so-called “rebalance to Asia” from going anywhere.
Now that the US faces an ambitious China, alignment with Russia is no longer a taboo, and the “one China” policy is on the negotiating table.
The smaller triangle of Taiwan-US-China relations must be seen against the background of strategic adjustment in the bigger triangle. If de-recognition of the Republic of China was the price to be paid for the big triangle set up by Kissinger, the new big triangle now surfacing might be an opportunity for Taiwan.
Many Taiwanese have misinterpreted what Trump said about “one China” being open to bargaining as meaning that Taiwan’s status will be placed on the negotiating table.
Up to now “one China” has been a precondition for relations, but now the US wants to renegotiate the price. The worst that can happen to Taiwan is to go back to the way things have been.
However, at this key moment when the US’ strategy is being overhauled, Taiwan must stay calm and be prepared for China to take out its anger on Taiwan.
President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has come in for criticism for the low-key approach to China embodied in her “new four noes,” promising that her administration will not change its pledges or its goodwill and will not bow to pressure or revert to the old path of confrontation.
This approach might be the best way for Taiwan to bide time as it waits for a new bright outlook in the international situation.
Chen Ming-chi is an associate professor and chair of National Tsing Hua University’s Institute of Sociology.
Translated by Julian Clegg
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