Better Poll Questions Needed
Experts have long lamented the lack of accurate, impartial and useful polling data regarding the identity of the Taiwanese and the kind of cross-strait relationship they prefer. Even casual observers recognize that the limited polling information has been filtered through the ideological biases of the nation's myriad contending camps.
While many consumers of polling data are savvy enough to neutralize the ubiquitous spin, even many spin-free polling results lack explanatory power because poll questions have been poorly constructed. On the question of Taiwanese identity, pollsters typically ask, "Are you Taiwanese, Chinese or both?" And on the question of cross-strait ties, the pollsters ask, "Do you favor independence, unification, or the status quo."
Better questions would probably produce more complete and meaningful answers. On the question of identity, pollsters could ask a series of questions: Are you a hua ren? Are you a han zu? Are you a zhong guo ren? Are you a taiwan ren? Are you a yuan zhu min? If so from which tribe? Are you a hoklo or a hakka? Are you a wai sheng ren? If so, which sheng do you most identify with? Do your parents belong to more than one of these groups? If so, which ones?
On the question of cross-strait ties, pollsters could ask respondents to answer "yes," "no," or "maybe" to the following questions: Is Taiwan part of China? If not, should it be? Is Taiwan part of the Republic of China? If not, should it be? Is Taiwan part of the People's Republic of China? If not, should it be? Is Taiwan already independent? If not, should it be?
I suspect we would learn that most respondents view themselves as hua ren (culturally Chinese) or han zu (ethnic Chinese) but perhaps not as zhong guo ren (Chinese by nationality). We might also discover that most respondents see themselves as simultaneously Taiwan ren (Taiwanese) and also as yuan zhu min (indigenous folk), or hoklo or hakka or wai sheng ren, and that most respondents are descended from more than one of these last four "sub-ethnic" groups.
In addition, I suspect some respondents would say that Taiwan is part of China or the Republic of China, but virtually no one would say that Taiwan is or should be part of the People's Republic of China.
But what good is conjecture? To better understand the cultural, ethnic and political complexities of Taiwan, we need reliable, accurate, and illuminating data. We need better polling questions. How about this one: "Under what conditions would you ever freely consent to Taiwan's unification with the PRC?"
The answers to that one might raise an eyebrow or two in Washington and Beijing.
Jon Welch
Clifton, Virginia
The gutting of Voice of America (VOA) and Radio Free Asia (RFA) by US President Donald Trump’s administration poses a serious threat to the global voice of freedom, particularly for those living under authoritarian regimes such as China. The US — hailed as the model of liberal democracy — has the moral responsibility to uphold the values it champions. In undermining these institutions, the US risks diminishing its “soft power,” a pivotal pillar of its global influence. VOA Tibetan and RFA Tibetan played an enormous role in promoting the strong image of the US in and outside Tibet. On VOA Tibetan,
Sung Chien-liang (宋建樑), the leader of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) efforts to recall Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Lee Kun-cheng (李坤城), caused a national outrage and drew diplomatic condemnation on Tuesday after he arrived at the New Taipei City District Prosecutors’ Office dressed in a Nazi uniform. Sung performed a Nazi salute and carried a copy of Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf as he arrived to be questioned over allegations of signature forgery in the recall petition. The KMT’s response to the incident has shown a striking lack of contrition and decency. Rather than apologizing and distancing itself from Sung’s actions,
US President Trump weighed into the state of America’s semiconductor manufacturing when he declared, “They [Taiwan] stole it from us. They took it from us, and I don’t blame them. I give them credit.” At a prior White House event President Trump hosted TSMC chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家), head of the world’s largest and most advanced chip manufacturer, to announce a commitment to invest US$100 billion in America. The president then shifted his previously critical rhetoric on Taiwan and put off tariffs on its chips. Now we learn that the Trump Administration is conducting a “trade investigation” on semiconductors which
By now, most of Taiwan has heard Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an’s (蔣萬安) threats to initiate a vote of no confidence against the Cabinet. His rationale is that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)-led government’s investigation into alleged signature forgery in the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) recall campaign constitutes “political persecution.” I sincerely hope he goes through with it. The opposition currently holds a majority in the Legislative Yuan, so the initiation of a no-confidence motion and its passage should be entirely within reach. If Chiang truly believes that the government is overreaching, abusing its power and targeting political opponents — then
RSS