The US and Japan play a pivotal role in maintaining peace in East Asia. In a March 1998 lecture at the Heritage Foundation, former US defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said: "Japan is the anchor of freedom and stability in East Asia, the key to the US position in Asia, and an important pillar of our global strategy."
On April 17, 1996, President Clinton and then prime minister Hashimoto signed a Joint Declaration on Security-Alliance for the 21st Century, calling for a review of the Guidelines for the US-Japan Defense Cooperation (1978). The revised guidelines provide for Japan's logistic support of American forces in the event of crises in the "areas surrounding Japan."
Japan has traditionally defined its maritime defense line to 1,000 nautical miles, or to areas north of the Philippines. In response to queries from China about whether the guidelines encompass the Taiwan Strait, both Japan and the US have answered that the guidelines are not geography-specific but are rather situational, thus leaving open the option of cooperation in assisting Taiwan in the event of a Chinese assault on Taiwan.
Japan has joined the US' effort to develop a Theater Missile Defense (TMD) for East Asia. TMD envisions the protection of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan as well as US forces deployed in the East Asia-Pacific region. Thus, China has reason to fear the potential incorporation of Taiwan into the US-Japan TMD protection umbrella.
Over the last year there has been a lively debate among policy elites about the future of the US-Japan security relationship. Some advisors to Governor George W. Bush, such as Richard Armitage and Paul Wolfowitz, share the view that Japan must do more and work with the US to face China. They believe the two countries, which share basic values and common security interests, should establish greater integration at the operational level so that Japan can provide active support in difficult military missions.
Japan has tried hard to maintain friendly relations with China. It formally recognized the PRC in 1972. It has extended tens of billions of dollars in financial and technical aid, despite China's rapid military modernization and the potential threat it poses to Japan. This policy of active cooperation with China is in part an atonement for past Japanese aggression, in part to prevent a destitute China from exporting herds of emigrants to Japan. The Japanese government may also believe that a prosperous China is more likely to be peaceful.
Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) 1998 visit to Japan, however, marked the beginning of a more realistic Japanese attitude. Jiang made a major diplomatic blunder by bluntly demanding, in the presence of the Japanese emperor, yet another apology for World War II aggression. Many Japanese were deeply offended. The repeated incursions of Chinese naval and "research" vessels near Japanese waters in the past year have also alarmed Japan. Zhu Rongji's (朱鎔基) upcoming visit to Japan is designed, no doubt, to smooth ruffled feathers. Yet the era of warm relations based on Tokyo's wishful naivete has ended.
Regarding Taiwan, the Japanese government "respects" China's claim of sovereignty over the island. Whether "respect" is tantamount to recognition is perhaps subject to different interpretations. Former prime minister Nakasone recently stated that Japan's policy is basically "One China, peaceful unification" (Yomiuri Shinbun, Sept. 10). Some scholars will surely dispute this view. The Japanese government did once express support of the US commitment to defend Taiwan: in the Nixon-Sato communique of 1969, it stated that "The security of Taiwan is of utmost importance to Japan."
There are influential groups in Japan which believe Japan needs to become a "normal country," responsible for its own national defense. A growing portion of the population now believes Article 9 of the Japanese constitution, which prohibits the use of force except in response to a direct military attack, needs to be abolished. The pace of obtaining a consensus on how to modify its constitution is, however, agonizingly slow.
What will happen to Japan if China were to successfully invade Taiwan, with US acquiescence? With the credibility of the US-Japan alliance damaged beyond repair and the sea lines of communications on both sides of Taiwan now under Chinese control, Japan would face unpalatable choices: go nuclear to cope with China's growing military capability or reconcile itself to the status of a docile protectorate of China. Under the latter scenario, China would be able to requisition Japan's considerable financial and technological resources at will to build up its wealth and power. With the combined strength of China (including Hong Kong), Taiwan and Japan, it would no longer be unrealistic for China to aspire to become the world's greatest superpower in the next quarter century. In either case, the US could well be forced to abandon its forward deployment strategy in Asia and withdraw to Guam and Hawaii. The national interests and security of the US would be severely impaired.
The balance of military power in the Taiwan Strait is shifting steadily and rapidly in China's favor. The status quo cannot be maintained much longer. On the other hand, the Chinese Communist Party's grip on power is precarious. One might say the party lost its mandate of heaven with the Tiananmen Square incident and that 1989 marks the beginning of the end for the Beijing regime.
The people of Taiwan need to reach a consensus without delay and decide whether to defend and preserve their democracy from Chinese aggression or to abandon its de facto sovereignty and economic prosperity in return for "peace." If the Taiwanese can find the courage and perseverance to stay on the right side of history, chances are both the US and Japan will eventually come to Taiwan's aid, because doing so will serve their national interest.
Until then, Taiwan needs to stand firm and refrain from actions and deeds which can be perceived by other nations as a decision to forfeit its inalienable right to self-determination. Unrestrained, indiscriminate investments in China and premature implementation of direct trade, transportation and communication links with China without due safeguards for Taiwan's security are prime examples of such deeds.
Li Thian-hok is a board member at large of the Formosan Association for Public Affairs and is chairman of of the diplomacy committee of World United Formosans for Independence (USA).
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