Sales of personal computers were hit by the global economic slowdown last year, showing their first yearly decline since 1985, but analysts said a fourth-quarter buying spurt is reason for optimism.
Gartner Dataquest reported Friday that worldwide PC shipments totaled 128 million units last year, a 4.6 percent decline from 2000. In the US, sales fell 11.1 percent to 44 million units, the research firm said.
"The PC industry has not experienced such a difficult year since 1985 when worldwide PC shipments declined 2.3 percent, and US PC shipments dropped 21.8 percent," Dataquest said in a statement.
The figures confirmed a survey from International Data Corp, which said fourth-quarter global PC sales were down 6.7 percent from the same period a year earlier, to 34.2 million.
But IDC said the fourth quarter showed improvement, up 16.9 percent, over a dreadful third quarter.
"Hard times persist in the PC market, but vendors are working diligently to stimulate growth and the outlook has started to improve in the United States and Europe," said IDC analyst Loren Loverde.
`Seeds of recovery are being sown'
"We don't expect a rapid turnaround, but the seeds of recovery are being sown. Depending on the economic environment, growth in the PC market may pick up more rapidly toward the end of the year."
Dell was the only major manufacturer to exhibit sales growth, with its worldwide shipments up 18.3 percent as it moved past Compaq to become the leading vendor, Dataquest said.
According to IDC, the only region of the world to show year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter was the Asia Pacific region excluding Japan.
But IDC said the sequential growth figure -- comparing the fourth quarter to the prior quarter -- provides a better indicator of the market's performance, with current sales "only slightly behind the average fourth-quarter sequential growth rate" of 19.8 percent from 1995 through 2000.
In the US, the fourth quarter was 10.1 percent lower than a year ago, but up 6.1 percent from the third quarter.
"US consumers finally pulled out some of the stops in the fourth quarter," said Roger Kay at IDC.
"After four quarters of subdued buying, consumers in the United States ended the year with a burst of activity, particularly in retail."
Dataquest analysts were more guarded in their outlook, expecting worldwide PC shipments to decline four percent in the first quarter of 2002 but to finish the year with a growth rate of 4 percent.
"While there is a mood of optimism in the industry, having made it through the bloodbath that was 2001, evidence for an immediate improvement in the first quarter of 2002 is far from clear," Charles Smulders said.
"On the positive side, it does not appear that the market is getting worse. We do not expect to see a significant upturn in growth until the fourth quarter of 2002. This based on an economic upturn in the second half of the year."
Separately, Dell issued an optimistic outlook for its own sales saying it expects shipments to show 50 percent sequential growth in the consumer market and revenue growth of about 40 percent for the quarter ending Feb. 1.
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