The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) yesterday trimmed its forecast for the nation’s economic growth to 3.76 percent from an estimate of 3.91 percent in May, given slowing global trade and weaker export momentum.
It is the second time that DGBAS cut its prediction, after it lowered the figure to 3.85 percent last month. The 0.15 percentage point revision brings the forecast lower than those estimated by most think tanks.
“We have a mild revision because we found that most sectors still report stable growth rather than a drastic correction,” DGBAS Minister Chu Tzer-ming (朱澤民) told a news conference in Taipei.
Photo: CNA
Slower demand for exports is the main reason for the revision, as the IMF had cut its forecast for global trade growth this year to 4.1 percent from five percent given surging inflation, the war in Ukraine war and tightened monetary measures, Chu said.
The agency cut its forecast for the nation’s exports to US$506.7 billion for this year, compared with an earlier estimate of US$516.1 billion.
However, the revised export figures still represent annual growth of 13.51 percent, Chu said.
Imports are forecast to grow faster than exports, by 16.8 percent annually to US$445.6 billion, as domestic manufacturers have significant demand for foreign-made machinery, DGBAS Statistics Department head Tsai Yu-tai (蔡鈺泰) said.
Trade surplus in goods and services is expected to book US$114.1 billion, down from US$115.1 billion last year, the agency said.
As a result, net demand from foreign markets is predicted to contribute 0.85 percentage points to GDP growth, down from 1.85 percent last year and 2.67 percent in 2020, Tsai said.
However, DGBAS boosted its growth forecast for domestic investment to 6.55 percent for the year, up by nearly 2 percentage points from an earlier estimate, as the agency had seen stronger-than-expected momentum, especially from semiconductor companies, offshore wind power developers and solar power farmers, Tsai said.
The agency expects private consumption to peak this quarter, up 6.49 percent year-on-year, given relaxed COVID-19 measures and government programs to spur local travel, Tsai said.
Private consumption this year is expected to rise 3.03 percent from a year earlier, the first annual growth since 2020, the DGBAS said.
The DGBAS yesterday raised this year’s consumer price index growth forecast to 2.92 percent, up from the 2.67 percent it estimated in May, mainly because of a surge in the costs of rental homes and dining out, Chu said.
If accurate, 2.92 percent would be the highest growth since 2009, after 3.52 percent in 2008, Tsai said.
Asked why DGBAS did not raise the figure above three percentage points, as most think tanks had estimated, Chu said that international prices of goods slid month-on-month, and “the second quarter should have been the peak for inflation growth.”
STEADY: Prices are to rebound following inventory rebuilding demand, TrendForce said, with Samsung Electronics Co further trimming capacity as it slashes DDR4 lines The contract prices of DRAM chips are to rise by as much as 18 percent sequentially this quarter — the first price upticks in about eight quarters — driven mainly by inventory rebuilding demand for DRAM chips used in mobile devices and PCs, TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) projected yesterday. The price rebound is led by a quarterly increase of mobile DRAM chips, which are to climb between 13 percent and 18 percent quarter-on-quarter this quarter, which has not been seen since the fourth quarter of 2021, the Taipei-based market researcher predicted. Likewise, the price of mainstream PC DDR4 DRAM is expected to bounce
SOLID FOUNDATION: Given its decades of expertise in megatronics, manufacturing and robotics, Japan has the wherewithal to create its own AI, Jensen Huang said Nvidia Corp plans to help build an artificial intelligence (AI) tech-related ecosystem in Japan to meet demand in a country eager to gain an edge in this emerging technology. The US company will seek to partner with Japanese research organizations, companies and start-ups to build factories for AI, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) said yesterday during opening remarks in a meeting with Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura. The company is to set up an AI research laboratory, and invest in local start-ups and educate the public on using AI, Huang said. Huang earlier this week met with Japanese Prime
A Hong Kong court postponed a court hearing on troubled Chinese property developer Evergrande Group’s (恆大集團) winding-up petition scheduled for yesterday until Jan. 29. Evergrande is trying to win support from its creditors for a plan to restructure more than US$300 billion in debt to stave off liquidation. The company’s lawyer told the court it was requesting an adjournment to “refine” its new debt restructuring plan. The Hong Kong High Court has postponed the hearing over Evergrande’s potential liquidation several times. Judge Linda Chan (陳靜芬) had said in October that yesterday’s hearing would be the last before a decision is handed down. Chan
Huawei Technologies Co (華為) is among a field of “very formidable” competitors to Nvidia Corp in the race to produce the best artificial intelligence (AI) chips, Nvidia chief executive officer Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) said yesterday. Huawei, Intel Corp and an expanding group of semiconductor start-ups pose a stiff challenge to Nvidia’s dominant position in the market for AI accelerators, Huang told reporters in Singapore. Shenzhen-based Huawei has grown into China’s chip tech champion and returned to the spotlight this year with an advanced made-in-China smartphone processor. “We have a lot of competitors, in China and outside China,” Huang said. “Most of our competitors