European shares rose on Thursday as the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its policy stance largely unchanged and signaled a steady reduction of stimulus over the coming months, spurring money markets to trim rate hike bets for the year.
The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.7 percent, broadening a rise of 0.1 percent from earlier in the day, while eurozone shares advanced 0.6 percent.
The ECB stuck to its plans of finally ending its stimulus program in the third quarter of this year, but avoided mentioning a precise schedule, stressing uncertainties around the Ukraine war.
Short-dated yields and the euro were driven lower.
“With rate hikes expected to start some time after the end of asset purchases, this sequence provides the ECB flexibility and optionality for the coming months depending on economic developments,” Syz Bank chief economist Adrien Pichoud said.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank would only start raising interest rates “some time” after it has ended its net asset purchases.
Money markets trimmed their rate hike bets, pricing in about 65 basis points (bps) of rate hikes by year-end from 70 bps earlier.
The ECB is facing a tough policy trade-off that is far more complex than in other developed markets, Fidelity International global macro economist Anna Stupnytska said.
“As the growth shock becomes more evident, the ECB’s focus will likely shift away from high inflation towards trying to limit economic and market distress... Contrary to market pricing, we do not expect the ECB to hike rates until the fourth quarter of this year or early 2023,” Stupnytska said.
The ECB is lagging most other major central banks, which started raising interest rates last year.
Technology stocks were the only sector in the red, shedding 0.3 percent, while battered travel and leisure stocks gained the most, with low-cost airline Wizz Air Holdings PLC jumping 7.7 percent on signs of encouraging summer bookings.
Birkin bag maker Hermes International SA gained 2.7 percent after its quarterly sales beat estimates, lifted by strong appetite for luxury accessories.
Volkswagen SA fell 1.5 percent after warning of a cloudy outlook, saying that it had started to feel the impact of the Ukraine war on supply chains and raw materials prices in the first quarter.
Worries about rate hikes, a prolonged Ukraine conflict and mixed earnings have investors concerned, causing the STOXX 600 to end the holiday-shortened week 0.2 percent lower.
European stock markets are closed on Friday and tomorrow for Good Friday and Easter holidays.
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