A former Chinese finance minister criticized the country’s statistics for not properly reporting negative economic changes, with the rare harsh public statement from a senior figure highlighting long-standing concerns about the accuracy and reliability of national data.
A key meeting of top leaders last week said China’s growth next year would be weighed down by a “triple” whammy of contracting demand, a supply shock and weakening expectations.
However, none of those are visible in the statistical indicators, which have all been “very good,” Lou Jiwei (樓繼偉), a former Chinese minister of finance, said at an online event on Saturday.
Photo: AP
“There are insufficient figures reflecting negative changes” in the economy, Lou said, adding that the one-sided data make it harder to assess the government’s current judgment on the “triple forces” overshadowing the economy.
“In contrast, the US has both positive and negative numbers,” he said.
While the Chinese government touts the increase in the number of companies and other market entities, despite the COVID-19 pandemic, it has not publicized that a large number of these are inactive due to business woes and the difficulty of canceling official registrations, Lou said.
Similarly, government statistics count new jobs created, but do not follow up on whether those people are then laid off after six months or more, he said.
Lou is well-known as an outspoken and forthright commentator on the economy. After serving as finance minister, he headed the national pension fund until 2019.
Economists, as well as Chinese government officials, have repeatedly raised questions about the accuracy of the nation’s economic data over the years. After a series of scandals about faked data, a special unit was set up to combat the issue, with Chinese National Bureau of Statistics Director Ning Jizhe (寧吉喆) saying in 2018 the problems were all in the past.
Ning spoke at the online forum on Saturday just before Lou made his comments.
Although China’s statistics do look to have improved in recent years as national authorities take over more responsibility for data collection, doubts remain, with issues such as the steadiness of growth statistics or discrepancies between national and local numbers continuing to raise questions about accuracy.
The most important word for Chinese economic policy next year is “stability,” according to a senior economic official of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
There are many hidden risks in the economy and the financial sector, and China cannot return to the old growth path, Han Wenxiu (韓文秀), executive vice minister of the CCP’s Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, said in an online event on Saturday.
Han was explaining the economic plans for next year, which the CCP released on Friday.
The property sector is large, has a long supply chain, and accounts for a high proportion of the economy, fixed-asset investment, local governments’ income and financial institutions’ loans, Han said.
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