The average selling price of DRAM chips next quarter is expected to decline by up to 8 percent quarter-on-quarter, with memory chips used in notebook computers and consumer electronics seeing the steepest decline due to excess inventory and a shortage of components, market researcher TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) said yesterday.
That means the DRAM industry is entering a new downcycle after experiencing a boom for three quarters, the longest uptrend in the history of the industry.
The Taipei-based researcher said it expects the balance between supply and demand to begin tilting toward a surplus in the final quarter of this year.
Most DRAM buyers are cautious about placing new orders, as their inventories have risen above safe levels, TrendForce said.
The average selling price of DRAM chips would slide between 3 and 8 percent next quarter from this quarter, the first decline since the first quarter of this year, it said.
The price of DRAM chips for laptops would fall between 5 and 10 percent, as a decline in demand for laptops would cause a PC DRAM chip surplus of 1.38 percent, TrendForce said.
Buying sentiment for Chromebooks is running out of steam, as students and workers are gradually returning to schools and offices after the US and European economies reopened, it said.
As PC makers have speculated that DRAM prices could weaken further, PC DRAM chip prices might decline more than 10 percent for some transactions next quarter, TrendForce said.
However, a slump in the PC DRAM segment would not likely trigger a large-scale downturn, as PC DRAM chips only account for a relatively small portion of major DRAM manufacturers’ total DRAM capacity, and chipmakers might allocate more capacity to server DRAM production amid steady server demand, it said.
The price of DRAM chips used in servers would remain the same or drop up to 5 percent next quarter, as growth momentum is slowing from the third quarter because US and Chinese cloud-server providers have ensured they have high inventory levels for eight to 10 weeks, the researcher said.
The price of DRAM chips used in consumer electronics would fall between 5 and 10 percent, as spending on home entertainment electronics is declining due to relaxed COVID-19 restrictions, it said.
Besides, a severe component shortage has led to lower shipments of TVs, set-top boxes and networking devices, as well as industrial devices, dragging down demand for DRAM chips, TrendForce said.
The price of DRAM chips used in mobile devices would be largely flat, but there is the likelihood of a decline due to high inventory levels ahead of the slack season in the first quarter, TrendForce said.
Demand for DRAM chips used in graphics cards looks resilient amid a recovery in cryptocurrency mining activities and robust demand for commercial laptop computers, TrendForce said, adding that the price of graphics card DRAM chips would be flat or drop 5 percent next quarter, it said.
Uneven supply of key components, including driver ICs, power management ICs and graphics cards is weakening buying sentiment, the researcher added.
The US dollar was trading at NT$29.7 at 10am today on the Taipei Foreign Exchange, as the New Taiwan dollar gained NT$1.364 from the previous close last week. The NT dollar continued to rise today, after surging 3.07 percent on Friday. After opening at NT$30.91, the NT dollar gained more than NT$1 in just 15 minutes, briefly passing the NT$30 mark. Before the US Department of the Treasury's semi-annual currency report came out, expectations that the NT dollar would keep rising were already building. The NT dollar on Friday closed at NT$31.064, up by NT$0.953 — a 3.07 percent single-day gain. Today,
‘SHORT TERM’: The local currency would likely remain strong in the near term, driven by anticipated US trade pressure, capital inflows and expectations of a US Fed rate cut The US dollar is expected to fall below NT$30 in the near term, as traders anticipate increased pressure from Washington for Taiwan to allow the New Taiwan dollar to appreciate, Cathay United Bank (國泰世華銀行) chief economist Lin Chi-chao (林啟超) said. Following a sharp drop in the greenback against the NT dollar on Friday, Lin told the Central News Agency that the local currency is likely to remain strong in the short term, driven in part by market psychology surrounding anticipated US policy pressure. On Friday, the US dollar fell NT$0.953, or 3.07 percent, closing at NT$31.064 — its lowest level since Jan.
The New Taiwan dollar and Taiwanese stocks surged on signs that trade tensions between the world’s top two economies might start easing and as US tech earnings boosted the outlook of the nation’s semiconductor exports. The NT dollar strengthened as much as 3.8 percent versus the US dollar to 30.815, the biggest intraday gain since January 2011, closing at NT$31.064. The benchmark TAIEX jumped 2.73 percent to outperform the region’s equity gauges. Outlook for global trade improved after China said it is assessing possible trade talks with the US, providing a boost for the nation’s currency and shares. As the NT dollar
The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) yesterday met with some of the nation’s largest insurance companies as a skyrocketing New Taiwan dollar piles pressure on their hundreds of billions of dollars in US bond investments. The commission has asked some life insurance firms, among the biggest Asian holders of US debt, to discuss how the rapidly strengthening NT dollar has impacted their operations, people familiar with the matter said. The meeting took place as the NT dollar jumped as much as 5 percent yesterday, its biggest intraday gain in more than three decades. The local currency surged as exporters rushed to
RSS