The TAIEX would likely fall to about 15,000 points in the third quarter if US monetary policy changes next month, but the index is expected to rebound, peaking at 19,000 points in the fourth quarter, Capital Investment Management Corp (群益證投顧) said yesterday.
Capital Investment, which in May predicted a peak this year of 18,000 points, raised its forecast due to a strong recovery in the global economy, with demand and unemployment figures in the US improving, and Europe anticipating a tourism rebound, Capital Investment chairman Andrew Tsai (蔡明彥) told a videoconference.
Local semiconductor companies and manufacturers of electronics would benefit from a global economic recovery, while 5G suppliers are expected to receive more orders as countries where the COVID-19 situation has eased accelerate 5G development, Tsai said.
Photo: Wu Chi-lun, Taipei Times
While the fundamentals in the technology sector are expected to remain solid — which would lay a foundation for TAIEX gains — industries in non-technology sectors, such as sea shipping, aviation, sports and leisure, and finance, are also gaining momentum, he said.
Capital Investment is optimistic about local airlines as they have expanded capacity amid demand for air cargo, he said, adding that air cargo sales are expected to continue growing.
Despite the rosy fundamentals, there might be volatility in the TAIEX in the second half of this year and it would retreat if the US Federal Reserve reduces bond purchases at its meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 26 to 28, Tsai said.
Several other factors might also cast a shadow on the local market, including the domestic COVID-19 situation, vaccination rates and the scale of an economic rebound in Asia, as well as appreciation of the local currency against the US dollar, Tsai said.
The TAIEX yesterday closed down 0.02 percent at 17,710.15 points, with turnover of NT$607.08 billion (US$21.69 billion), Taiwan Stock Exchange data showed.
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