The government’s business climate monitor returned to “green” as the nation’s export-reliant economy resumed a stable recovery after two months of slowdown, the National Development Council said yesterday.
The total score for the major economic bellwether stood at 24 last month, a 4-point gain from January, backed by improvements in industrial output, capital equipment imports and producers’ shipments, the council said.
“The latest figures suggest a healthy state for the nation’s economy, although the pace of growth remains modest,” council research director Wu Ming-huei (吳明蕙) told a media briefing.
The trade tensions between the US and China merit close attention and so do monetary policy moves by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks, Wu said.
The US and China account for about 50 percent of the nation’s exports.
The council uses a five-color spectrum to identify the nation’s economic state, with “blue” representing a recession, “green” signifying steady growth and “red” indicating overheating. Dual-color signals suggest the economy is changing gears.
CONFIDENCE
The leading indicator index, which is aimed at forecasting the economic landscape six months ahead, stood at 101.17, down 0.13 percentage points from one month earlier, the council said.
The indices on semiconductor equipment imports, building permits and employee payrolls posted positive cyclical movements, while export orders, monetary supply and stock prices had negative cyclical movements, it said.
The coincident indicators, which reflect the current economic state, printed 102.05, up 0.05 percentage points from one month earlier, it said.
The measures on producers shipments for manufacturing, industrial production and electrical equipment imports registered positive cyclical movements, while sales of trade and food services, exports, non-agricultural employment and power consumption saw negative cyclical movements, it said.
The nation’s economy might continue to find support in global economic expansion and new technology applications, Wu added.
Trade disputes between the US and China have yet to impact on consumer confidence as the measure increased to a 32-month high of 87.86 this month, a National Central University (NCU) survey showed yesterday.
The gauge on stock investment confidence picked up 5.3 points to 106.2, above the neutral threshold of 100, the monthly report said.
NCU Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development director Dachrahn Wu (吳大任) attributed the rosy sentiment to the timing of the survey, which was conducted from Monday to Thursday last week, before the world’s two largest economies announced protectionist measures.
The local bourse has come through sluggish transactions, judging from the daily turnover of NT$120 billion (US$4.12 billion) so far this year, compared with an average of NT$100 billion last year and NT$80 billion in 2016, NCU professor of economics Yau Ruey (姚睿) said.
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