The Bank of England said Britain’s biggest lenders emerged from its latest stress test with the strength to keep lending even during a “disorderly” Brexit.
Five of the seven banks passed the health check, while two — Barclays PLC and Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC — fell below their systemic reference point, a higher threshold that reflects their global significance.
Yet actions taken by the banks since the end of last year mean neither needs to bolster their capital, the central bank said yesterday.
While the test did not factor in economic shocks specifically related to the withdrawal from the EU, it pitted banks against a 4.7 percent plunge in economic output, the British pound crashing 27 percent versus the US dollar, house prices devaluing by a third and ￡40 billion (US$53.3 billion) of misconduct charges.
“The stress-test scenario therefore encompasses a wide range of UK macroeconomic risks that could be associated with Brexit,” the central bank said.
As a result, it “judges the UK banking system could continue to support the real economy through a disorderly Brexit.”
A messy divorce — with no trade deal or transition agreement — coupled with a “severe global recession and stressed misconduct costs” could push banks beyond the limits of the stress test, forcing them to draw down capital buffers substantially more. In this case, firms would be more likely to reduce lending, the central bank said.
The central bank also followed through on its plan to increase the countercyclical capital buffer to 1 percent.
In June, the regulator said this buffer level would increase required system-wide capital by ￡11.4 billion “given current risk-weighted assets.”
The increase becomes binding in a year.
It will not force banks to strengthen capital, but it will require them “to incorporate some of the capital they currently have in excess of their regulatory requirements into their regulatory capital buffers.”
The central bank’s Financial Policy Committee is to consider the adequacy of the buffer rate during the first half of next year and could raise the level again.
HSBC Holdings PLC, Lloyds Banking Group PLC, Nationwide Building Society, Santander UK PLC and Standard Chartered PLC all passed the health check, which was based on data at the end of last year.
The seven lenders incur losses of about ￡50 billion in the stress scenario, a level that “would have wiped out” their common equity capital a decade ago.
All banks stop paying dividends, bonuses and additional tier 1 debt coupons under the scenario.
Barclays fell below its systemic reference points for common equity tier 1 capital and tier 1 leverage ratio, the central bank said.
It was not required to submit a new capital plan thanks to steps taken since December last year, including issuing ￡2.5 billion of AT1 debt and selling down its majority shareholding in Barclays Africa Group Ltd.
Royal Bank of Scotland missed its CET1 ratio systemic reference point, but like Barclays was not required to submit a new capital plan.
Before the test results were announced, Goldman Sachs Group Inc analysts led by Martin Leitgeb said the focus would be on Barclays, Lloyds and Standard Chartered, because they are all trying to increase or restart dividend payments.
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