Sat, Jan 23, 2010 page12

• Jobless rate slides for a fourth month

  OPTIMISM After hitting a record 5.85 percent last year, economists said the jobless rate could dip below 5 percent in the second half as import and export demand rises

  • By Ted Yang / STAFF REPORTER
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  The nation’s unemployment rate fell for a fourth straight month to 5.74 percent last month, with the number of people without work dropping to 632,000, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said yesterday.

  For the whole year, however, the jobless rate hit a record high of 5.85 percent last year, the DGBAS said.

  If the economy continues to recover at the current pace, the DGBAS and economists said the jobless rate could decline to pre-recession levels of below 5 percent in the second half of the year.

  Speaking at a press conference yesterday, DGBAS deputy director Liu Tian-syh (劉天賜) said the 0.12-percentage-point drop in the jobless rate to 5.74 percent last month was “the lowest since last February.”

  The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also contracted for the third consecutive month to 5.8 percent last month, down 0.18 percentage points from a month before, the agency said.

  Liu attributed last month’s drop chiefly to increased employment in service sectors and a surge in temporary jobs toward the end of last year.

  Altogether, the number of unemployed people stood at 639,000 last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.96 percent, or 189,000 people, the agency said.

  However, unemployment appears to be stabilizing as companies are more willing to hire workers to meet a pickup in exports and imports.

  Asked whether the jobless rate could slide to 4.9 percent this year — a goal set by the Council of Economic Planning and Development — Liu said the government “would have to create between 120,000 and 130,000 jobs.”

  The DGBAS also said that the average wages in the first 11 months of last year contracted 4.92 percent year-on-year to NT$42,451 (US$1,327), the lowest since 2004.

  Cheng Cheng-mount (鄭貞茂), chief economist at Citigroup Inc Taiwan, said that on an annually adjusted basis, the unemployment rate beat its forecast of 5.93 percent.

  Although the unemployment rate “remains relatively high, it has recorded a gradual decrease, suggesting that the job market is beginning to recover,” Cheng said, adding that the economy was growing mildly.

  “If the economic rebound continues, the unemployment rate is likely to drop below 5 percent,” he said.

  Liang Kuo-yuan (梁國源), president of the Taipei-based Polaris Research Institute (寶華綜合經濟研究院), agreed, saying this year would be “much better” than last year.

  “It [the unemployment rate] could drop below 5 percent, but a strong economic rebound is needed and recovering industries must be able to recruit workers,” Liang said, adding that the service sector could see a higher increase in employment.
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