The worldwide pharmaceutical market will grow between 4 percent and 6 percent next year, exceeding US$825 billion, as more Americans get health insurance to pay for their prescriptions, a report from IMS Health Inc has found.
Global growth will be between 4 percent and 7 percent each year through 2013, the report released yesterday from the Norwalk, Connecticut-based market research firm said.
The projection is 1 percentage point higher than IMS’ previous forecast in April. Demand for medicines this year has been higher than IMS anticipated, said Murray Aitken, the senior vice president of the company’s Healthcare Insight division.
The US market is expected to grow between 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent this year, and 3 percent to 5 percent next year, Aitken said.
The overhaul of the US health-care system is expected to boost prescriptions, because more people who were uninsured will have access to treatment, especially preventive medicines such as pills that lower cholesterol and diabetes drugs, Aitken said.
“We’ve been a little surprised at the resilience of the US market, despite the downturn,” Aitken said in a telephone interview. “People are still visiting their doctors, beginning and continuing therapy.”
Insurers are expanding the incentives for people to use generic medicines, the report found.
Products that now generate US$137 billion in sales, including Pfizer Inc’s cholesterol pill Lipitor, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co and Sanofi-Aventis SA’s blood-thinner Plavix, and GlaxoSmithKline Plc’s asthma drug Seretide, are expected to face generic competition during the next five years, the IMS report said.
The pharmaceutical industry is increasingly using discounts and rebates that aren’t reflected in IMS’ forecast and data, the report said.
The global pharmaceutical market is expected to increase to US$975 billion by 2013. China’s drug market is expected to grow at least 20 percent a year, and contribute 21 percent of growth through 2013, IMS said.
More readily available medical care is driving the growth rates, Aitken said.
“There’s a significant health reform effort in China, which is intended to bring preventive care to the Chinese,” Aitken said. “Even though it’s fairly minimal coverage from our perspective, when you multiply by several hundred million, it’s a market opportunity.”
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