Wall Street’s spectacular run has hit a speed bump, with investors pausing to digest gains and pondering how far the rally can go in an economy showing signs of recovery along with lingering weakness.
The main stock indexes pulled back from a four-week run that saw gains of around 15 percent for the broad market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average of blue-chips fell 0.52 percent for the week to end at 9,321.40 after notching a fresh nine-month high earlier in the week.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index shed 0.63 percent over the week to 1,004.09, while the tech-dominated NASDAQ retreated 0.74 percent to 1,985.52.
The broad market has rallied more than 45 percent from lows hit in early March amid expectations for recovery, but is still down around 35 percent from all-time highs in October 2007.
The most recent rally, however, has given way to consolidation, and doubts about the recovery have grown amid lackluster data on US retail sales and consumer confidence.
“The strong positive market momentum seen in mid-to-late July has dramatically slowed,” said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at DA Davidson & Co.
“We are not looking for major catalysts to lift the market over the next two to three weeks. Historically late August and September is a difficult time for the stock market, especially during years where the market has made a substantial move as buyers traditionally wait for third-quarter guidance and earnings releases before making new major stock purchase commitments,” Dickson said.
Myles Zyblock, analyst at RBC Dominion Securities, said that the market was now being plagued by doubts after the strong runup.
“Absent a sustained economic recovery, equity market gains will prove difficult to keep and nearly impossible to build upon, in our view,” he said. “At some point down the road, we might indeed discover that the labor market failed to recover, that the economic upturn proved brief and that the equity market rally was merely a multimonth pop in a major downtrend.”
However, he said there were signs the economy was on the mend.
“Specifically, the leading economic indicators that have worked for decades remind us that the economic recovery is progressing,” he said. “In fact, some of these same indicators point to the possibility of a powerful surge in production activity starting as early as this quarter and extending out into the first half of 2010.”
Doug Sandler at Riverfront Investment Group said that despite the fear that rally has gone too far, it pays to look back to historical highs rather than the March lows, which he considers an anomaly.
“We should discount the extraordinary lows and excessively cheap valuations that were reached by the S&P 500 in March 2009,” Sandler said. “Ignoring the extreme valuations from March, we think that the market is currently neither cheap nor expensive.”
Linda Duessel at Federated Investors said she expected the economy to recover with help from the Federal Reserve’s commitment to easy money and other stimulative efforts.
At its meeting on Wednesday, she said, “The Fed made clear it’s in no rush to pull back.”
“This means money should remain cheap and growth could surprise to the upside in the second half,” she added. “So while commentators are suggesting a correction into the worst month of the year [September] — and this very well could happen — we would not want to lose sight of the continuing bullish story.”
Bonds gained on the shift away from stocks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped to 3.558 percent from 3.854 percent a week earlier and that on the 30-year bond declined to 4.406 percent from 4.603 percent. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
In the coming week, the economic calendar is light with reports due on wholesale prices, and new and existing home sales. Earnings reports are due from tech giant Hewlett-Packard and home improvement retailer Home Depot.
Beijing’s continued provocations in the Taiwan Strait reveal its intention to unilaterally change the “status quo” in the area, the US Department of State said on Saturday, calling for a peaceful resolution to cross-strait issues. The Coast Guard Administration (CGA) reported that four China Coast Guard patrol vessels entered restricted and prohibited waters near Kinmen County on Friday and again on Saturday. A State Department spokesperson said that Washington was aware of the incidents, and urged all parties to exercise restraint and refrain from unilaterally changing the “status quo.” “Maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is in line with our [the
EXTENDED RANGE: Hsiung Sheng missiles, 100 of which might be deployed by the end of the year, could reach Chinese command posts and airport runways, a source said A NT$16.9 billion (US$534.93 million) project to upgrade the military’s missile defense systems would be completed this year, allowing the deployment of at least 100 long-range Hsiung Sheng missiles and providing more deterrence against China, military sources said on Saturday. Hsiung Sheng missiles are an extended-range version of the Hsiung Feng IIE (HF-2E) surface-to-surface cruise missile, and are believed to have a range of up to 1,200km, which would allow them to hit targets well inside China. They went into mass production in 2022, the sources said. The project is part of a special budget for the Ministry of National Defense aimed at
READY TO WORK: Taiwan is eager to cooperate and is hopeful that like-minded states will continue to advocate for its inclusion in regional organizations, Lai said Maintaining the “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait, and peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region must be a top priority, president-elect William Lai (賴清德) said yesterday after meeting with a delegation of US academics. Leaders of the G7, US President Joe Biden and other international heads of state have voiced concerns about the situation in the Strait, as stability in the region is necessary for a safe, peaceful and prosperous world, Lai said. The vice president, who is to be inaugurated in May, welcomed the delegation and thanked them for their support for Taiwan and issues concerning the Strait. The international community
COOPERATION: Two crewmembers from a Chinese fishing boat that sank off Kinmen were rescued, two were found dead and another two were still missing at press time The Coast Guard Administration (CGA) was yesterday working with Chinese rescuers to find two missing crewmembers from a Chinese fishing boat that sank southwest of Kinmen County yesterday, killing two crew. The joint operation managed to rescue two of the boat’s six crewmembers, but two were already dead when they were pulled from the water, the agency said in a statement. Rescuers are still searching for two others from the Min Long Yu 61222, a boat registered in China’s Fujian Province that capsized and sank 1.03 nautical miles (1.9km) southwest of Dongding Island (東碇), it added. CGA Director-General Chou Mei-wu (周美伍) told a