As the World Trade Organization (WTO) struggles to break down more global trade barriers with a key summit just five months away, the global body faces a major test of its credibility.
Trading nations will gather in Hong Kong in December for a conference which is meant to set the seal on four years of rocky negotiations aiming to deliver a treaty by 2006 that slashes barriers to commerce and uses trade to help developing countries.
A failure in Hong Kong would do more than bring back bad memories of the WTO's collapsed summits in Seattle in 1999 and Cancun, Mexico, in 2003, experts say.
It would also be a blow for the multilateral trading system of which the WTO is the hub -- one in which all members, from the big players to the microstates, agree to play by the same rules.
For example, they can ask the WTO to referee disputes if they think their trade partners are flouting the rules, and the trade body's experts can authorize massive commercial penalties against those found in breach.
If Hong Kong turns into a "real bust-up," then the WTO could be mired for years, said John Weekes, a trade expert who was previously Canada's top diplomat at the world body.
"I'm not sure that governments would admit it, but the practical matter is that negotiations would probably continue, but with no real prospect of finishing in any timeframe that would have any commercial relevance," Weekes said.
Another fruitless summit would not kill off the decade-old WTO, but would likely deaden its impact, he said.
"People haven't found any substitute outside the WTO for the management of the really big trade relationships, the US, the EU, how to deal with China," he said.
"But the risk is that its credibility would be damaged, that you'd find people less willing to abide by dispute-settlement findings, less willing to think about their WTO obligations before they took certain domestic policy decisions," Weekes said.
"The WTO would still be there, all the agreements would still be in place, but I don't think the system would function as well -- and it would be more difficult to convince governments and legislatures that it was something to be respected," he said.
The WTO's Doha round of negotiations, launched in 2001, has alternately raised and dashed hopes.
After the initial euphoria among trading nations that their summit in the Qatari capital had succeeded where their 1999 Seattle conference had failed, the talks got bogged down.
In Cancun, the summit collapsed amid a rift revolving around farm trade -- in which poor countries and exporting nations such as Australia were seeking more concessions from the EU and the US -- and on services, with rich countries pressing the poor to open up sectors including insurance and banking.
It took a year for an even partial recovery, with members sketching out an interim deal last summer. Progress has been limited since then.
Governments are far from ready for Hong Kong, as shown by a meeting last week: Billed months ago as the moment to create a loose draft, the three-day session of the WTO General Council was far off-target.
NO HUMAN ERROR: After the incident, the Coast Guard Administration said it would obtain uncrewed aerial vehicles and vessels to boost its detection capacity Authorities would improve border control to prevent unlawful entry into Taiwan’s waters and safeguard national security, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said yesterday after a Chinese man reached the nation’s coast on an inflatable boat, saying he “defected to freedom.” The man was found on a rubber boat when he was about to set foot on Taiwan at the estuary of Houkeng River (後坑溪) near Taiping Borough (太平) in New Taipei City’s Linkou District (林口), authorities said. The Coast Guard Administration’s (CGA) northern branch said it received a report at 6:30am yesterday morning from the New Taipei City Fire Department about a
IN BEIJING’S FAVOR: A China Coast Guard spokesperson said that the Chinese maritime police would continue to carry out law enforcement activities in waters it claims The Philippines withdrew its coast guard vessel from a South China Sea shoal that has recently been at the center of tensions with Beijing. BRP Teresa Magbanua “was compelled to return to port” from Sabina Shoal (Xianbin Shoal, 仙濱暗沙) due to bad weather, depleted supplies and the need to evacuate personnel requiring medical care, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tarriela said yesterday in a post on X. The Philippine vessel “will be in tiptop shape to resume her mission” after it has been resupplied and repaired, Philippine Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, who heads the nation’s maritime council, said
REGIONAL STABILITY: Taipei thanked the Biden administration for authorizing its 16th sale of military goods and services to uphold Taiwan’s defense and safety The US Department of State has approved the sale of US$228 million of military goods and services to Taiwan, the US Department of Defense said on Monday. The state department “made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale” to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US for “return, repair and reshipment of spare parts and related equipment,” the defense department’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a news release. Taiwan had requested the purchase of items and services which include the “return, repair and reshipment of classified and unclassified spare parts for aircraft and related equipment; US Government
More than 500 people on Saturday marched in New York in support of Taiwan’s entry to the UN, significantly more people than previous years. The march, coinciding with the ongoing 79th session of the UN General Assembly, comes close on the heels of growing international discourse regarding the meaning of UN Resolution 2758. Resolution 2758, adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1971, recognizes the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the “only lawful representative of China.” It resulted in the Republic of China (ROC) losing its seat at the UN to the PRC. Taiwan has since been excluded from