Thu, Mar 18, 2004 page12

• Comic plays on Japan's fears for yen

  CONSPIRACY THEORY Has the White House come up with a diabolical plan to force the Japanese to buy huge amounts of dollars to save the US economy from collapse?

  • AP
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  The plot is sinister: Officials in Washington conspire to keep the dollar low and force Japanese authorities to intervene in the exchange market to buy the US currency -- not to save vulnerable Japanese exporters from the dangers of a high yen, but to keep the American economy from sliding.

  This story line from a top selling comic book in Japan is entertaining and delightfully implausible. Nonetheless, it highlights growing fears here over currency fluctuations.

  

  This is a copy of a two-page spread from the latest episodes in the popular, long-running Japanese comic Golgo 13, showing the main character Golgo 13, at right, and the episode's theme, ``Price-Keeping Operation.'' Unlikely for a comic strip, a plot that American leaders conspire to keep the dollar artificially low, tricking the Japanese into pouring billions of yen into US treasuries to keep their currency from getting too strong, highlights real fears about seesawing currency values.

  PHOTO: AP

  There's little doubt that if the yen rises too much against the dollar, Japan's fragile export-driven recovery could sputter. Prices for Japanese products abroad would soar and earnings of major companies would plunge.

  It's true that Japanese authorities have been dipping into the market for months. They have been spending a fortune buying and bolstering the value of the dollar while keeping the yen lower.

  Now that dry economic reality has been turned inside out to become improbable fictional fodder for fans of Golgo 13 -- a "manga" action hero serial that's featured in the weekly Big Comic magazine.

  Manga is a style of comic wildly popular in Japan among adults as well as children. The main character of Golgo 13 is a macho sniper-assassin, whose weekly illustrated exploits reflect the big social, political and financial changes on the world scene.

  In the latest three-part series he's caught up in the center of a dramatic battle between the yen and dollar.

  In the real world, analysts say there's no doubt Japan's shopping spree for dollars is helping the US economy.

  "It's keeping US interest rates low and helping push up American share prices," says Mamoru Yamazaki, economist at Barclays Capital Japan in Tokyo.

  But Yamazaki believes the intervention campaign has been excessive, fueled by exaggerated fears about a surging yen among Japanese officials and media.

  "Sometimes a strong yen can be a good thing, like from a consumer's point of view," he said, referring to how a strong yen would push down import prices. "Excessive intervention is distorting the market."

  The Japanese authorities spent a record ¥20 trillion (US$182 billion) to intervene in the currency market last year to curb the dollar's slide. They spent about ¥10 trillion (US$91 billion) in the first two months of this year alone.

  Even so, the dollar has fallen more than 10 percent from last year to ?105 levels in February but has recovered lately to above 110 yen. All the while, Japan has been aggressively snatching up US Treasury bonds to keep their currency from getting too strong.

  Japanese officials continue to brush aside speculation that interventions may be finally ebbing.

  The dollar fell in Tokyo early yesterday amid continued speculation that Japan would ease up on its interventions. The greenback bought ?108.84 at 11am yesterday, down ?0.78 from late Tuesday in Tokyo but above the ?108.78 it bought in New York later that day.

  It's hardly the dialogue of an action hero. But the creators of Golgo 13 have spiced things up.

  In it high-profile Washington figures, including one apparently inspired by National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, are depicted as intensely worried about the dollar's possible plunge.

  An overly weak dollar will not only set off a job exodus to China and India but will cause capital to flee from America, they fret.

  The story suggests that the US has concocted a diabolical trap to force Tokyo to cough up a massive amount of cash to finance ballooning US deficits while preventing a crash in US Treasuries.
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