At a time of shrinking employment, the world's three largest economies are adding jobs in the same industry: health care and services for the elderly.
Employment data this week in the US and Germany are likely to show more job gains in health services even as manufacturers slice payrolls amid economic stagnation.
For now, providing for the aging is about the only source of new jobs, even as economists including Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warn that rising numbers of old people may become a drag on economic growth. Farms, factories and stores in Japan, Germany and the US pared workforces last year.
Companies and public agencies that provide health care and social services for the elderly, such as Tenet Healthcare Corp, the second-biggest US hospital chain, added workers to meet rising demand.
"It's very clear that old people consume health care at a much higher rate" than the young, said Paul S. Hewitt, an economist and director of the global aging initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. Aging populations are increasing demand for "everything from specialized medical technicians to low-tech workers who assist elderly people in their daily living."
Employment growth in services hasn't been enough to make up for declines in manufacturing jobs at companies such as NTN Corp, a Japanese maker of machinery and bearings. It plans to eliminate 700 jobs, or 9 percent of its domestic workforce, by May. Factory job cuts helped push Japan's jobless rate to a post-World War II record of 5.5 percent in January.
In Germany, unemployment last month held at 10.3 percent, the highest since November 1999, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the government to report Thursday. Continued job-cutting by cost-conscious companies pushed the US unemployment rate to 5.8 percent in February from a four-month low of 5.7 percent in January, economists predict the Labor Department will say Friday.
As the US lost 1.6 million jobs over the last two years, employment in health services grew 5.6 percent, with hospitals, insurers, and medical offices adding 253,000 workers.
In Germany, employment in health-care services rose 2.5 percent to about 1.9 million in the first quarter of last year, the latest period for which data are available, from a year earlier.
Total employment, excluding low-wage jobs, fell 0.6 percent in that period, according to figures from the Federal Labor Office.
Japan's services industry, which includes nursing care, medical care and education, added 360,000 workers last year even as the second-largest economy lost 820,000 jobs.
The number of senior citizens in the three largest economies is projected to increase two-thirds by 2025, according to the UN. The US Senate Special Committee on Aging called Greenspan to testify on the topic last week to examine the effect of older workforces on everything from productivity to pensions to government programs.
"There is no doubt that while economists may not be terribly good in making long-term economic forecasts, demographers are extraordinarily accurate in making forecasts of what the population will look like 10 and 15 years ahead,'' he said.
Within two decades, almost one in four residents of Germany, Europe's biggest economy, will be over the age of 65. Even as the population falls, the number of elderly Germans will jump 47 percent by 2025, according to UN projections.
"The growth of senior care in the next 30 to 50 years will be above average, and we can profit from this," said Luthar Reiche, head of investor relations at Maternus-Kliniken AG, a German nursing-home operator. The company added 120 jobs in the past year as it took over nursing homes.
Over the past four years, employment in health-care services has increased 7.9 percent, compared with a rise of just 2.3 percent in overall employment.
NO-LIMITS PARTNERSHIP: ‘The bottom line’ is that if the US were to have a conflict with China or Russia it would likely open up a second front with the other, a US senator said Beijing and Moscow could cooperate in a conflict over Taiwan, the top US intelligence chief told the US Senate this week. “We see China and Russia, for the first time, exercising together in relation to Taiwan and recognizing that this is a place where China definitely wants Russia to be working with them, and we see no reason why they wouldn’t,” US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told a US Senate Committee on Armed Services hearing on Thursday. US Senator Mike Rounds asked Haines about such a potential scenario. He also asked US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lieutenant General Jeffrey Kruse
INSPIRING: Taiwan has been a model in the Asia-Pacific region with its democratic transition, free and fair elections and open society, the vice president-elect said Taiwan can play a leadership role in the Asia-Pacific region, vice president-elect Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) told a forum in Taipei yesterday, highlighting the nation’s resilience in the face of geopolitical challenges. “Not only can Taiwan help, but Taiwan can lead ... not only can Taiwan play a leadership role, but Taiwan’s leadership is important to the world,” Hsiao told the annual forum hosted by the Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation think tank. Hsiao thanked Taiwan’s international friends for their long-term support, citing the example of US President Joe Biden last month signing into law a bill to provide aid to Taiwan,
China’s intrusive and territorial claims in the Indo-Pacific region are “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive,” new US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo said on Friday, adding that he would continue working with allies and partners to keep the area free and open. Paparo made the remarks at a change-of-command ceremony at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam in Hawaii, where he took over the command from Admiral John Aquilino. “Our world faces a complex problem set in the troubling actions of the People’s Republic of China [PRC] and its rapid buildup of forces. We must be ready to answer the PRC’s increasingly intrusive and
STATE OF THE NATION: The legislature should invite the president to deliver an address every year, the TPP said, adding that Lai should also have to answer legislators’ questions The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) yesterday proposed inviting president-elect William Lai (賴清德) to make a historic first state of the nation address at the legislature following his inauguration on May 20. Lai is expected to face many domestic and international challenges, and should clarify his intended policies with the public’s representatives, KMT caucus secretary-general Hung Meng-kai (洪孟楷) said when making the proposal at a meeting of the legislature’s Procedure Committee. The committee voted to add the item to the agenda for Friday, along with another similar proposal put forward by the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). The invitation is in line with Article 15-2