Gold prices will outperform those of other precious metals such as silver and platinum as political tensions, a weakening dollar and concerns of stagnant economic growth spur demand, analysts said.
The gold price will average US$336 an ounce this year, a gain of more than 8 percent from last year, according to the average expectations of 18 analysts contacted by Bloomberg. Silver will rise almost 7 percent to US$4.92 an ounce, while platinum should add almost 6 percent to US$571 an ounce. Palladium will sink 23 percent to US$260 an ounce, the survey found.
Gold last year had its biggest gain since 1979 as investors sought a haven from declining stock markets, a weakening dollar, terrorism and the threat of a war against Iraq. Fifteen out of 18 respondents in the survey predicted an increase in gold prices, while only one expected a decline.
"The factors that drew gold higher in 2002 shall continue to prevail in 2003," said Frederic Panizzutti, a director at Geneva-based GoldAvenue, a trading and marketing service. "There is a threat of further terrorism and the risk for a military intervention in Iraq combined with volatile stock and currency markets."
Platinum will continue to benefit, after a 26 percent gain last year, from growth in demand that is outpacing supplies from mines, the analysts said. Demand was expected to rise 2.9 percent last year to 6.37 million ounces, almost half a million ounces more than mine production, according to Johnson Matthey Plc, the world's biggest precious-metals marketer.
Platinum, mined mostly in South Africa and Russia, is used in jewelry and by carmakers to make exhaust systems.
"The inability for new mine supply to meet this growing demand will produce several years of deficit," said Ingrid Sternby, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London. "We expect strong end-use demand from key sectors to keep prices firm."
Rival metal palladium is also used by carmakers in auto catalysts. They cut their purchases last year, leading to a drop in demand that meant consumption last year was probably its lowest since 1994, according to Johnson Matthey. The metal last year lost 46 percent of its value, prompting Russia, the biggest producer in 2001, to embargo sales to the open market.
Palladium is also used by dentists and by manufacturers of electronics, chemicals and jewelry.
"It is difficult to make a bullish case for palladium," said Ross Norman, a director at TheBullionDesk.com, a research company. "Car stocks are high, car sales are forecast to decline, the shift to platinum is gathering momentum and electronics demand looks terminal."
Silver is likely to be buoyed by the gains in gold, analysts said. A mean price of US$4.91 this year would be its highest yearly average since 2000, when it averaged US$4.96 an ounce.
NO-LIMITS PARTNERSHIP: ‘The bottom line’ is that if the US were to have a conflict with China or Russia it would likely open up a second front with the other, a US senator said Beijing and Moscow could cooperate in a conflict over Taiwan, the top US intelligence chief told the US Senate this week. “We see China and Russia, for the first time, exercising together in relation to Taiwan and recognizing that this is a place where China definitely wants Russia to be working with them, and we see no reason why they wouldn’t,” US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told a US Senate Committee on Armed Services hearing on Thursday. US Senator Mike Rounds asked Haines about such a potential scenario. He also asked US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lieutenant General Jeffrey Kruse
INSPIRING: Taiwan has been a model in the Asia-Pacific region with its democratic transition, free and fair elections and open society, the vice president-elect said Taiwan can play a leadership role in the Asia-Pacific region, vice president-elect Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) told a forum in Taipei yesterday, highlighting the nation’s resilience in the face of geopolitical challenges. “Not only can Taiwan help, but Taiwan can lead ... not only can Taiwan play a leadership role, but Taiwan’s leadership is important to the world,” Hsiao told the annual forum hosted by the Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation think tank. Hsiao thanked Taiwan’s international friends for their long-term support, citing the example of US President Joe Biden last month signing into law a bill to provide aid to Taiwan,
China’s intrusive and territorial claims in the Indo-Pacific region are “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive,” new US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo said on Friday, adding that he would continue working with allies and partners to keep the area free and open. Paparo made the remarks at a change-of-command ceremony at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam in Hawaii, where he took over the command from Admiral John Aquilino. “Our world faces a complex problem set in the troubling actions of the People’s Republic of China [PRC] and its rapid buildup of forces. We must be ready to answer the PRC’s increasingly intrusive and
UNWAVERING: Paraguay remains steadfast in its support of Taiwan, but is facing growing pressure at home and abroad to switch recognition to Beijing, Pena said Paraguayan President Santiago Pena has pledged to continue enhancing cooperation with Taiwan, as he and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed opposition to any unilateral change to the “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait using force, Japanese media reported on Saturday. Kishida yesterday completed a trip to France, Brazil and Paraguay, his first visit to South America since taking office in 2021. After the Japanese leader and Pena spoke for more than an hour on Friday, exchanging views on the situation in East Asia in the face of China’s increasing military pressure on Taiwan, they affirmed that “unilateral attempts to change the