Thailand could slide into technical recession if second-quarter growth results due next month fall into negative territory, dashing hopes for a recovery from the 1997 financial crisis, analysts say.
Over the three months to March, Thailand's gross domestic product shrank by 0.2 percent when compared to the previous quarter, although on a year-by-year basis it recorded a modest 1.8 percent expansion.
A second successive quarter of negative growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis would trigger a technical recession, leading Thailand down the same path as Singapore whose exports-dependent economy is also suffering a slowdown.
A spokeswoman for the official records keeper, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), said the results due out on Sept. 17 were likely to be disappointing.
"Growth may not be as high as in the first quarter," she told AFP. "The best thing would be to hope for flat results."
The NESDB has forecast the Thai economy to grow by 2.5 percent over 2001 but the IMF and many independent analysts believe the result will be closer to 2 percent.
"The door is open (to a recession) because it did contract in the first quarter by -0.2 percent," said Adrian Foster, a Singapore-based economist for Capital Nomura Securities.
"If it grows at 1.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, that's the equivalent of zero on a quarter-on-quarter basis. So anything less than that would be a recession."
Foster said that despite the possibility of a recession, he was optimistic that Thailand would not suffer the consequences of the international technology market collapse as much as some of its neighbors.
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