British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s staff are talking about an imminent general election as though it were a fact, but amid growing expectations that the next chapter in the UK’s political crisis is to see the country go to the polls, it is still not clear how it would happen.
The argument for an election is clear. Johnson has a governing majority in the British Parliament of just one seat, meaning that he does not have the votes to pass any controversial legislation.
It is also far from clear that there is a majority for any kind of Brexit deal, while British lawmakers are plotting to block his “do or die” plan to take Britain out of the EU on Oct. 31, without a deal if necessary.
Calling an election would stop those plots — lawmakers would cease to be lawmakers and would have to fight again for their seats — and could potentially deliver Johnson a majority.
The Conservatives see Johnson as an electoral asset, a politician who is also a celebrity.
If Johnson could argue that the election had been forced on him and fight a “parliament versus the people” campaign, the Tories hope that Johnson could sweep up voters frustrated that Brexit has not been delivered.
Yet, a prime minister can no longer go to the monarch and request an election. Under the 2011 UK Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, a national ballot can only be called if two-thirds of parliament opt for one, or if the government loses a confidence vote. Unless either of those happen, the next election is not scheduled until 2022.
If Johnson wants an election “to break the parliamentary deadlock, or get a mandate for a no-deal Brexit, then he will not only need the support of all of his party, but also a sizable chunk of opposition MPs,” said Maddy Thimont Jack of the Institute for Government. “A lot depends on when he calls it.”
Opponents of a no-deal Brexit fear that Johnson might go for a date just after Oct. 31, allowing Britain to leave the EU without a deal during the election campaign, when there would be no Parliament to stop it.
Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said that this would be “unconstitutional and anti-democratic.”
Labour’s backing, which Johnson needs given his wafer-thin majority, would likely depend on his agreeing to delay Brexit.
There is a potential way around the 2011 election law: To amend it, requiring only a simple majority in parliament. But it would also need the agreement of the upper House of Lords, and the timing of Brexit makes this complicated.
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