Japan could hold its first referendum on revising its pacifist constitution next year, a historic step which if successful would cement Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s conservative legacy, but risks splitting the public and worrying China and South Korea.
Abe, in a surprise move on the 70th anniversary of the US-drafted charter last month, made a proposal to revise its war-renouncing Article 9 by 2020 to clarify the ambiguous status of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (SDF).
Amending Article 9 would be hugely symbolic for Japan, where supporters see it as the foundation of post-war democracy, but many conservatives see it as a humiliating imposition by the US after Japan’s defeat in 1945.
It would also be a victory for Abe, whose conservative agenda of restoring traditional values and loosening constraints on the military centers on revising the constitution.
“When he looks back on his years in office, he wants to be able to say: ‘I revised the constitution,’” former Japanese vice minister of defense Akihisa Nagashima said.
Concrete steps to change the charter would likely cause concern in China and South Korea, where bitter memories of Japan’s past military aggression persist.
“Because of reasons of history, the international community, particularly Asian neighbors, have always paid close attention and been on alert to Japan’s military tendencies,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Hua Chunying (華春瑩) said recently.
China hoped Japan could “respect the spirit of the peaceful constitution,” she said.
Abe’s proposal would add a clause legitimizing the SDF to existing clauses renouncing Japan’s right to wage war and banning the maintenance of armed forces.
While similar to a past proposal from his Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) dovish junior partner, the proposal is a step back from more drastic changes sought by his party.
“Abe lowered the hurdle considerably,” said Hajime Funada, deputy head of an LDP task force on constitutional reform, told reporters.
The LDP could draft a proposal by year-end and parliament could vote next year, followed by a referendum, he said.
Proponents of the change say Abe’s proposal would simply inscribe in the constitution existing policies, but critics worry it would open the door to an expansion of the SDF’s role abroad.
Japanese voters are divided.
Support for revising Article 9 has actually dropped from 30 percent in 2002 to 25 percent early this year, according to surveys by NHK public TV, a decline some experts attribute to mistrust of Abe’s conservative ideological agenda.
However, in a poll late last month by the Nikkei newspaper, 51 percent backed Abe’s proposal, an apparent sign many could accept a change they think would merely legitimize the “status quo.”
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