President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s sudden absence from work and reported hospitalization has exposed the uncertainty over who could succeed the man who has ruled Kazakhstan for over two decades.
The 71-year-old Nazarbayev has dominated the short history of independent Kazakhstan, constructing a system of power around himself following the fall of the Soviet Union.
The German newspaper Bild on Tuesday reported that Nazarbayev underwent a prostate operation at University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf in Hamburg as the president disappeared from public view for almost two weeks.
The official silence that followed in the glitzy Kazakh capital, Astana, on the president’s whereabouts or his state of his health, only fueled speculation.
Nazarbayev returned to work on Thursday after a 10-day absence, with officials saying he has simply been on holiday, but questions about his possible successor remained.
“One of distressing things in Kazakhstan is that no one can say what will happen in three days,” political observer Aidos Sarimov said. “The whole system is created and sharpened for one man, who will never give up power voluntarily.”
It is difficult to predict how the political situation will unfold in the future, despite the official claim of stability and security, he said.
“No one can tell you what will happen in Kazakhstan after Nazarbayev,” he said.
Any abrupt departure from the political stage could send shock waves through the economic and political establishment in Kazakhstan, the second-biggest energy producer among former Soviet republics. Last year, parliament gave Nazarbayev a title of “Elbasy,” Kazakh for “leader of the nation,” granting him immunity from prosecution for life and the power to dictate policy after retirement. He enjoys some genuine support from the population and is seen by some as a leader comparable to Turkey’s Mustafa Kemal Ataturk or India’s Mahatma Gandhi. Yet, he has never dropped a hint of his successor. The hospitalization report is “a sharp reminder that the Kazakh leader has to start working on a road map of transition of his power,” said Lilit Gevorgyan, a London analyst with US-based IHS Global Insight.
“This uncertainty is likely to unnerve investors wary of Kazakhstan’s political [future] as well as the economic future,” she said.
Political observers have long cited Timur Kulibayev — the husband of Dinara, the president’s middle daughter — as a possible successor to Nazarbayev. Other possible candidates for the presidency include Prime Minister Karim Massimov, the Economy Minister Kairat Kelimbetov, and the powerful mayor of Astana, Imangali Tasmagambetov.
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