When the coalition led by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki narrowly lost at the polls, he raised the prospect that he could pull ahead by gaining the support of other Shiite-dominated alliances. Since then the largest of those groups have been reaching out — but not to him.
Al-Maliki’s secular challenger, Ayad Allawi, gained a significant advantage when he won the unexpected support of a major Iranian-linked Shiite party.
That came after anti-US Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr made a move widely seen as ominous for al-Maliki: asking his followers to decide which candidate his movement should support in a two-day, unofficial referendum that began on Friday.
Those developments may be only the beginning of a flurry of dealmaking that will determine the leader of Iraq’s new government, but they highlight al-Maliki’s struggles to overcome his personal unpopularity among rival Shiite leaders.
The leading contenders in the March 7 election each failed to score a decisive win, which left them scrambling to get enough parliamentary support to form a government. Allawi’s cross-sectarian bloc tapped into heavy Sunni support to come in just two seats ahead of al-Maliki’s mainly Shiite list, 91-89; 163 seats are needed to rule.
Many fear a drawn-out political debate to form a government could spill over into violence and complicate US efforts to speed up troop withdrawals in the coming months.
The close results raise the prospect of unlikely alliances, but the support Allawi received on Thursday night from the Iranian-linked Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council was particularly stunning because Allawi has been outspoken against the influence of Tehran and religious parties.
US PUPPET
Allawi, himself a Shiite who was prime minister in 2004-2005, has also been seen in the past as a US puppet who drew the ire of both Shiite and Sunni Muslims. His backing of the US offensives to take back the Sunni city of Fallujah in Anbar Province in 2004 and against al-Sadr’s Shiite militiamen in Najaf that same year was deeply unpopular at the time, though now supporters say his decisions show that he does not play favorites in cracking down on sectarian conflict.
Allawi appeared to be benefiting from stark divisions in the Shiite community despite purported efforts by neighboring Iran to push al-Maliki and his rivals into a coalition that could cement Shiite domination of the government.
Supreme Council leader Ammar al-Hakim did not endorse anybody as prime minister but said he was open to an alliance with Allawi’s Iraqiya list.
“We will not participate in the next government if Allawi’s list is not in it,” al-Hakim said in remarks broadcast late on Thursday on his party’s TV station.
POWER BASE
Retired Army Lieutenant-Colonel Nathan Freier, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, called it a move that could sideline al-Maliki while shoring up al-Hakim’s power base in the Shiite south.
“They see this as a route to weaken Maliki in a way to reassert their prominence in areas of Iraq that they consider the most important to them,” Freier said. “This is a way for them to nullify Maliki and play for time.”
Al-Sadr’s polling has no legal authority and was seen by many as grandstanding, but it could give the Sadrist leadership an excuse not to support al-Maliki and openly back another candidate under the guise of following the people’s wishes.
Al-Sadr supporters set up polling tents across the capital and other predominantly Shiite cities, drawing hundreds of people, some of them fingering prayer beads and holding umbrellas to shield them from the sun. Organizers expect to release results today.
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