Pakistan faces a “demographic disaster” if its leaders fail to invest in a youth population that is disturbingly cynical about democracy, has more faith in the military and is resentful of Western interference, according to a study published yesterday.
The report, commissioned by the British Council, says the nuclear-armed country is at a critical point, with its population forecast to swell by 85 million from its current 180 million over the next two decades.
“Pakistan is at a crossroads,” said David Steven, an academic who helped write the report. “It can harness the energy of that generation and collect a demographic dividend. But if they fail to get jobs and are poorly educated, it faces a demographic disaster.”
Pakistan has never had such a high proportion of young adults: Half of its population are aged under 20, with two-thirds still to reach their 30th birthday. But they are deeply divided about how the country should be run.
Only a third believe democracy is the best system of governance, one-third support Shariah law, while 7 percent think dictatorship is a good idea.
Fasi Zaka, a radio DJ and commentator who helped launch the report, called it a snapshot of a “lost generation.”
“They don’t believe in anything firmly. Maybe they want Shariah law, maybe they want democracy. It’s all over the place. But despite this there’s a lot of patriotism. So it’s not a lost cause.” Summing up the contradictions, he said young Pakistanis “don’t like this country, but they love it.”
The report makes sobering reading for the country’s civilian leaders. Of the 1,200 young people surveyed for the report’s opinion poll, 60 percent said they had faith in the military as an institution while only one in 10 voted for Afghan President Asif Ali Zardari’s beleaguered government.
Several respondents complained of endemic corruption, an issue that has dogged Zardari.
“Democracy or dictatorship — it doesn’t affect me. I get paid regardless of who is in power,” said Mian Muhammad Bilal, a 26-year-old civil servant.
Zardari is under heavy pressure with plunging ratings, a hostile media and persistent rumors of an impending “soft” military coup to displace him from the presidency.
Media adviser Farahnaz Ispahani said the cynicism about democracy was a product of Pakistan’s history of dictatorship.
“Only if a civilian government is allowed to finish its term will the youth trust in democracy,” she said.
Steven, a research fellow at New York University, warned that Pakistan risked creating a giant under-class more prone to extremism and violence.
“The country is going through a massive transformation in a global economy where resources are more scarce. It’s a big challenge,” he said.
The findings were a “wake-up” call for western donors who only see Pakistan through the prism of terrorism, he said.
“The US spent US$12.3 billion in Pakistan between 2002 and 2008, of which 70 percent went to the military. But it has not generated any security,” Steven said.
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