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Speculation rife over top CCP lineup

"There are always wild rumors during the party congress political season, but they seem even wilder this time around."

Joseph Fewsmith, Chinese politics expert

Speculation abounds over the likely top appointments in the Chinese Communist Party, as senior leaders lobby for their favorites behind closed doors.

China's rumor mill has shifted into overdrive during the past few days at the party congress, a once-every-five-years event to reshuffle top posts and approve policy directions, at which the normally secretive party becomes even more tightlipped.

Internet sites, overseas media, diplomats as well as China's own chattering classes -- lower-level officials and academics -- have spun out endless permutations on who will make the cut and who won't.

"There are always wild rumors during the party congress political season, but they seem even wilder this time around," said Joseph Fewsmith, a Chinese politics expert at Boston University.

Rumor has long been the currency of truth in China where party politics are intentionally opaque, all media are state controlled, and the Internet is fiercely policed. But in a China now wired by instant messaging, Internet chat sites and mobile phones, secrets sometime leak out and the gossip flies fast.

Reports in Chinese media yesterday provided no hints.

The official newspaper the People's Daily ran a front-page story about President Hu Jintao's (胡錦濤) policy of "scientific development," which calls for helping the poorest Chinese and spending more on health care and education.

"Development is the top priority for the party and to ensure that the country thrives," delegate Chen Yuan, governor of the China Development Bank, was quoted as saying.

The outcome of the leadership tussle will be known today or tomorrow when the congress and related meetings end.

With Hu and three or four other leaders all but certain to stay on in the party's inner sanctum, the Politburo Standing Committee, the speculation has focused on four or five positions -- and whether Hu has the political capital to pack it with his allies.

Will it be Li Keqiang (李克強), a Hu protege who runs an industrial province; Xi Jinping (習近平), the son of a revolutionary who governs Shanghai; Zhou Yongkang (周永康), the nation's police chief; or He Guoqiang (賀國強), who is in charge of the party's personnel files?

One overseas-based Web site, boxun.com, claimed to have the answer. It ran a list last week of what it said was the new leadership lineup.

The sources: a list from a prison printing shop in a gritty provincial capital that claimed to have printed up ballot lists for the conclave, and an identical list found at a party members' hotel by a chambermaid, whom the reporter identified as "my woman."

All through the past week in their brief encounters with the media, presumed top contenders parried questions about their pending promotions as unfounded speculation.

On Friday, Hu and other top leaders remained hidden, with official coverage limited to stories of rank-and-file delegates praising the Chinese president's opening speech to the congress that laid out his vision of more balanced economic growth and increased help for the needy.

The 2,200-plus representatives were preparing to vote today on a list of candidates for the roughly 350 members and alternates for the party's Central Committee, which will then choose the Politburo, largely on the advice of Hu and other influential leaders.

To prevent ordinary delegates from leaking proceedings, congress materials advised them not to use the Internet in their hotels, Hong Kong's Ming Pao newspaper said.

The government has taken thousands of Web sites off-line ahead of the congress.
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