Al-Qaeda has revived, extended its influence and has the capacity to carry out a spectacular strike similar to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the US, one of the world's leading security think tanks warned on Wednesday.
There is increasing evidence "that 'core' al-Qaeda is proving adaptable and resilient and has retained an ability to plan and coordinate large-scale attacks in the Western word despite the attrition it has suffered," the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said.
"The threat from Islamist terrorism remains as high as ever, and looks set to get worse," it said.
"The US and its allies have failed to deal a death-blow to al-Qaeda; the organization's ideology appears to have taken root to such a degree that it will require decades to eradicate," it said.
The warning came in the latest annual review of world affairs by the IISS. Its strategic survey paints a bleak picture of global security in the future and warns:
* Iran could have a nuclear weapon by 2009 or 2010, though this remains the "worst-case prediction";
* the US suffered a loss of authority as a result of the failure to impose order in Iraq;
* there are serious doubts about the ability of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, but any replacement would probably come too late to "halt the draining of American willpower to `stay the course'";
* if climate change is allowed to continue unchecked, its effects will be catastrophic "on the level of nuclear war."
At a press conference launching the report, senior IISS analysts went further.
Asked whether al-Qaeda had the capacity now to carry out a 9/11-style attack, and whether it was stronger than in 9/11, Nigel Inkster, the institute's director of transnational threats and political risk, replied: "Both."
Inkster, a former MI6 chief who was a candidate for the secret agency's top job three years ago, said there was much debate within al-Qaeda after the 9/11 attacks.
Many of its supporters believed it was a "tactical error," Inkster said, because it led to the removal of a safe base -- Taliban-controlled southern Afghanistan.
However, the recent foiling of an alleged plot in Germany and the alleged airliner plot last year in Britain showed that al-Qaeda had the ambition to carry out spectacular attacks while "strengthening" its "position in the bad lands of northwest Pakistan," he said.
Pakistani indigenous groups were "aligning themselves with al-Qaeda and the process of radicalization within Islamic countries is continuing apace," he said.
The institute said that disrupted plots had pointed to a "continuing and worsening problem of radicalization within Europe's Islamic diasporas -- and the degree to which terrorists were still being directed by al-Qaeda."
The IISS' assessment of the terrorist threat reflects that of MI5 and MI6. There are 2,000 individuals engaged in 30 terrorist plots in 200 networks, according to British security and intelligence officials.
"Western governments tend to meet the Muslim `single narrative' [that the West is by definition anti-Muslim] by way of rebuttal, arguing against its basis in fact," IISS director general John Chipman said.
That had to be addressed by encouraging non-violent responses, he said.
CONFRONTATION: The water cannon attack was the second this month on the Philippine supply boat ‘Unaizah May 4,’ after an incident on March 5 The China Coast Guard yesterday morning blocked a Philippine supply vessel and damaged it with water cannons near a reef off the Southeast Asian country, the Philippines said. The Philippine military released video of what it said was a nearly hour-long attack off the Second Thomas Shoal (Renai Shoal, 仁愛暗沙) in the contested South China Sea, where Chinese ships have unleashed water cannons and collided with Philippine vessels in similar standoffs in the past few months. The China Coast Guard and other vessels “once again harassed, blocked, deployed water cannons, and executed dangerous maneuvers” against a routine rotation and resupply mission to
GLOBAL COMBAT AIR PROGRAM: The potential purchasers would be limited to the 15 nations with which Tokyo has signed defense partnership and equipment transfer deals Japan’s Cabinet yesterday approved a plan to sell future next-generation fighter jets that it is developing with the UK and Italy to other nations, in the latest move away from the country’s post-World War II pacifist principles. The contentious decision to allow international arms sales is expected to help secure Japan’s role in the joint fighter jet project, and is part of a move to build up the Japanese arms industry and bolster its role in global security. The Cabinet also endorsed a revision to Japan’s arms equipment and technology transfer guidelines to allow coproduced lethal weapons to be sold to nations
Thousands of devotees, some in a state of trance, gathered at a Buddhist temple on the outskirts of Bangkok renowned for sacred tattoos known as Sak Yant, paying their respects to a revered monk who mastered the practice and seeking purification. The gathering at Wat Bang Phra Buddhist temple is part of a Thai Wai Khru ritual in which devotees pay homage to Luang Phor Pern, the temple’s formal abbot, who died in 2002. He had a reputation for refining and popularizing the temple’s Sak Yant tattoo style. The idea that tattoos confer magical powers has existed in many parts of Asia
ON ALERT: A Russian cruise missile crossed into Polish airspace for about 40 seconds, the Polish military said, adding that it is constantly monitoring the war to protect its airspace Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and the western region of Lviv early yesterday came under a “massive” Russian air attack, officials said, while a Russian cruise missile breached Polish airspace, the Polish military said. Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in a series of deadly aerial attacks, with yesterday’s strikes coming a day after the Russian military said it had seized the Ukrainian village of Ivanivske, west of Bakhmut. A militant attack on a Moscow concert hall on Friday that killed at least 133 people also became a new flash point between the two archrivals. “Explosions in the capital. Air defense is working. Do not