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All eyes on Scotland as UK polls get under way

Polls opened yesterday for mid-term local elections in England, Scotland and Wales, seen as a test for outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair's Labour party.

Attention was focused on Scotland, where the Scottish National Party (SNP) has promised a referendum on independence if it comes out on top, triggering warnings of a break-up of the UK.

The local and regional ballots come as Blair prepares to hand over power after 10 years, almost certainly to his less charismatic successor, finance minister and erstwhile rival Gordon Brown.

In all some 39 million people were entitled to vote in what some call "super Thursday."

In England, some 10,500 seats are up for grabs in 312 local authorities; in Wales, voters are choosing a new 60-seat Welsh Assembly, while in Scotland, they are voting for the 129-member Scottish parliament.

Analysts say Labour could lose 600 to 700 seats to the main opposition Conservatives, while the SNP could grab the lion's share of seats in the devolved Scottish parliament.

A new poll yesterday gave the SNP a clear five point lead in the race for the Scottish assembly. The YouGov survey, published in the Daily Telegraph, gave the Nationalists 32 percent, against 27 percent for Blair's party.

The Conservatives will be trying to secure an electoral bridgehead for their eventual return to power which they lost in 1997 to New Labour -- the powerful pro-business centrist force that Blair transformed from its leftwing roots.

The Tories have gradually overtaken Labour in opinion polls since reform-minded David Cameron became their leader 18 months ago, with a goal to turn the right-wing party into a centrist and electable force.

According to London School of Economics analyst Tony Travers, Labour risks losing its activist base in southern England the way that the Conservatives lost theirs in much of the urban north in the 1980s and 1990s.

"Once you've lost this power base, it's very difficult to win it back again," he said.

With the Scottish Nationalists set to do well, even become the largest party in the Edinburgh assembly, Labour's place in the current coalition with the Liberal Democrats is in doubt, Strathclyde University's John Curtice suggests.

The SNP has also worried Labour with its calls for Scottish independence, though Labour party members believe that opinion polls showing majority support for independence contain hidden protests against Labour's performance.

Blair's hopes of avoiding disaster in Scotland were bolstered slightly on the eve of the polls, when a survey showed the Nationalists' poll lead narrowing to two percentage points, with the SNP on 34 percent against 32 for Labour, though a more recent poll released yesterday contrasted those findings, showing the SNP holding a clear lead over Labour.
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