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Second vote seems likely in East Timor race for presidency

East Timor's presidential elections may require a second round of voting, a top election official said yesterday, setting the stage for prolonged instability in a young nation that nearly descended into civil war a year ago.

Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta, who won the 1996 Nobel Peace Prize for championing East Timor's struggle to end decades of brutal Indonesian rule, initially had been seen as the favorite for the five-year presidency.

But the 57-year-old statesman acknowledged that he may have lost public support after taking over a transitional government that is dominated by rival politicians.

An outright majority is needed to avoid a runoff that -- together with more crucial parliamentary elections in June -- could prolong tensions in the country of less than 1 million people.

Election Commission spokesman Martinho Gusmao said that with 20 percent of votes counted, the top contenders, Ramos-Horta, an independent, and Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo of the Democratic Party, were running neck-to-neck.

"So far we see from one candidate to another there is a small difference," he said, setting a provisional date of May 8 for a run-off vote.

"Perhaps no candidate will win more than 50 percent," he said.

East Timor was heralded as a success in nation-building when it formally declared independence in 2002.

Yet it descended into chaos last year after then prime minister Mari Alkatiri fired a third of the tiny army, provoking gunbattles between rival security forces that spiraled into gang warfare and looting.

At least 37 people were killed and some 155,000 fled their homes before the government collapsed.

Peace largely returned with the arrival of nearly 3,000 international peacekeepers, but there has been sporadic unrest.

Tens of thousands of refugees have yet to return home, and the country remains desperately poor, with 50 percent unemployment.

Preliminary results were expected today and the final tally on April 19.
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