The US tone on crunch North Korea crisis talks has taken an emphatically optimistic turn, in acute contrast to three years of unbending American rhetoric on the nuclear showdown.
During a recess in the latest round of six-party talks in Beijing, US envoy Christopher Hill has raised expectations, saying a deal could emerge to solve what some experts believe is an intractable crisis by October.
While noting that significant barriers remain, Hill says that if all parties agree on a statement of principles soon after talks crank up again in the week of August 29, the ultimate goal may be in sight.
PHOTO: EPA
"If we can agree on what the signposts are going to be ... we can put together an agreement -- perhaps later in September, October at the very latest -- because we really would like to keep the momentum going," Hill said at an Asia Society event here Wednesday, repeating a comment first made last week.
His stance raised eyebrows among North Korea watchers in Washington.
"What surprised me was that he seemed to be fairly upbeat that everything could be wrapped up by September/October. I just find that optimistic, to say the least," said Joel Wit, a former senior State Department negotiator on North Korea.
Hill's comments have left more questions than answers, as he has repeatedly refused to divulge the basis for his optimism. Among those questions are:
Is a breakthrough on dismantling North Korea's nuclear programs imminent?
Have Pyongyang's negotiators gone home to consult on a climbdown?
Has Washington secretly signalled that it is ready to moderate its position or explore new diplomatic avenues?
Or is the upbeat tone a negotiating tactic, designed to either pressure Pyongyang or reflect blame on the Stalinist state should the talks fold in acrimony?
The strategy is all the more surprising since there have been few indications throughout the crisis that a breakthrough is anywhere near.
White House officials have frequently lobbed muscular rhetoric North Korea's way, often annoying the more circumspect State Department, where Hill, assistant secretary of state for Asia and Pacific affairs, is based.
"It is hard to believe that the administration can change so quickly. Decision-making in this administration is just as hard to figure out as it is in North Korea," said Wit, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Mention of a speedy resolution is also puzzling because any deal would be intricate and would include a vast number of conditions and steps to ensure the verifiable end to North Korea's nuclear program, which Bush has demanded.
Such a pact would also at the minimum presumably include details on how to dismantle and dispose of the current nuclear production line in North Korea, outline electrical power and other incentives for Pyongyang, and include some roadmap on future US-North Korean relations.
It is possible that optimism is rising simply because the last set of talks in Beijing went on so long and ended with a pledge from all sides to meet again -- giving the impression, at least, of progress.
Hill "did have 13 gruelling days in Beijing, as opposed to two or three gruelling and unsatisfying days," said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack. "I think the fact that all the six parties spent nearly two weeks there is an indication of a willingness to try to reach some sort of conclusion."
Washington's sunny approach may also be designed for the benefit of its allies, amid whispers that positions of the major powers may not be as close as they seem, observers say.
The plot thickened on Friday, when the White House announced the appointment of former senior domestic policy aide Jay Lefkowitz as special envoy to promote human rights in North Korea.
Though the step was required by law, its timing also raised questions, as North Korea has reacted furiously to past US criticism of its apalling human rights record.
Could an angry reaction derail hopes for progress on the talks?
"It should not, in our judgment, ... affect it in any negative way. Obviously, we hope it would affect things in a positive way," a senior Bush administration official said in a conference call.
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