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US, Russia in political showdown over Uzbekistan

On the face of it, Russia and the US seem to be of like minds on how to respond to a military crackdown in Uzbekistan that left hundreds of civilians dead and to fresh instability in the region.

But behind the scenes, it is their differences that Moscow and Washington are honing as they engage in a quiet but fervent contest of their own to influence the course of events in Uzbekistan and project power more deeply into Central Asia, experts say.

In the past week, Moscow and Washington have joined numerous other countries and institutions in turning up the heat on Uzbekistan's autocratic President Islam Karimov, whose regime they have both supported in their own ways. They have also agreed that the recent killings require investigation.

But in contrast to demands from EU countries for an "international, independent" probe -- demands that Karimov has shown little enthusiasm to meet -- the language from Moscow and Washington has been attenuated, focusing on a "credible" probe with "international participation."

The disparity, experts say, reflects differences in the strategic objectives pursued by Russia and the US in Central Asia as opposed to those pursued by Europe, as well as the wariness with which Moscow and Washington are watching each other to see who moves first, and how.

"Both Russia and the US want Uzbekistan in their camp," said Yevgeny Volk, a strategic analyst with the Heritage Foundation think-tank in Moscow.

"And neither wants to destabilize the Karimov regime."

For Russia, Karimov represents a familiar order that has long safeguarded and promoted Russian economic, military and political interests in a critical part of the world on the border separating Russia from sources of instability on the Indian subcontinent and in the Middle East.

For the US, Karimov is a vital partner in the US-led "war on terrorism," who agreed to let Washington open an air base in his country, in a critical region representing a frontier outpost for US military presence and international influence.

"Russia and the US have some of the same objectives in the Central Asia region," Volk said.

"Uzbekistan is a major producer of gold and its location, ideal for transport of energy resources through oil pipelines and other means, for example, makes it of top strategic priority and of importance to control."

In a recent conversation with a small group of journalists in Moscow, a senior US official said Washington was still devising plans on how to conduct policy in the region amid the new instability in Uzbekistan. He acknowledged that Russia's position would be a factor in shaping the US plans.

"The Russians, because of their long-standing political ties, do have political weight" in Uzbekistan, said the official, speaking on condition he not be named.

"We will be watching to see how they deal with the Karimov government" as US policy evolves, he said.

An important ally of Russia for years, Karimov has also become a crucial partner for the US? since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks "and that's not something you can ignore in the calculus," the official said.

He asserted there were no "fundamental differences" between Moscow and Washington in their analyses of the instability in Central Asia, but then went on to list a series of fundamental differences between US and Russian strategists in evaluating the recent unrest.

"The Russian analysis has emphasized `external forces'" such as international terrorism in general and the ousted Taliban regime in neighboring Afghanistan in particular as being at the root of the violence in Uzbekistan, the official said.

"We see the roots of this crisis as more internal than external."

As if to confirm the Russian-US strategic tension over Uzbekistan, the head of Russia's FSB intelligence and security service, Nikolai Patrushev, said last week that despite US-led efforts to assert control in Afghanistan the country remained a major source of instability in Central Asia.

"The events that took place in Uzbekistan are the result not just of internal problems" but of external factors, Patrushev said Friday while on a visit to Kazakhstan, another key Central Asian state and long-time Russian ally.

"Despite the measures taken by the international community, the situation in Afghanistan is not stable. There continue to be camps used to train international terrorists," Patrushev was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency.

Volk said that the strongest card for the US to play at present in the region was its investment power while Russia could still use weapons sales at discount prices, training of military officers and other facets of its long-standing ties with Uzbekistan to sustain influence.
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