Mon, May 23, 2005 - Page 5 News List

US, Russia in political showdown over Uzbekistan

INFLUENCE Although both nations agree that a probe into the Uzbek massacre is necessary, the former Cold War rivals have an interest in projecting power in the region

AFP , MOSCOW

On the face of it, Russia and the US seem to be of like minds on how to respond to a military crackdown in Uzbekistan that left hundreds of civilians dead and to fresh instability in the region.

But behind the scenes, it is their differences that Moscow and Washington are honing as they engage in a quiet but fervent contest of their own to influence the course of events in Uzbekistan and project power more deeply into Central Asia, experts say.

In the past week, Moscow and Washington have joined numerous other countries and institutions in turning up the heat on Uzbekistan's autocratic President Islam Karimov, whose regime they have both supported in their own ways. They have also agreed that the recent killings require investigation.

But in contrast to demands from EU countries for an "international, independent" probe -- demands that Karimov has shown little enthusiasm to meet -- the language from Moscow and Washington has been attenuated, focusing on a "credible" probe with "international participation."

The disparity, experts say, reflects differences in the strategic objectives pursued by Russia and the US in Central Asia as opposed to those pursued by Europe, as well as the wariness with which Moscow and Washington are watching each other to see who moves first, and how.

"Both Russia and the US want Uzbekistan in their camp," said Yevgeny Volk, a strategic analyst with the Heritage Foundation think-tank in Moscow.

"And neither wants to destabilize the Karimov regime."

For Russia, Karimov represents a familiar order that has long safeguarded and promoted Russian economic, military and political interests in a critical part of the world on the border separating Russia from sources of instability on the Indian subcontinent and in the Middle East.

For the US, Karimov is a vital partner in the US-led "war on terrorism," who agreed to let Washington open an air base in his country, in a critical region representing a frontier outpost for US military presence and international influence.

"Russia and the US have some of the same objectives in the Central Asia region," Volk said.

"Uzbekistan is a major producer of gold and its location, ideal for transport of energy resources through oil pipelines and other means, for example, makes it of top strategic priority and of importance to control."

In a recent conversation with a small group of journalists in Moscow, a senior US official said Washington was still devising plans on how to conduct policy in the region amid the new instability in Uzbekistan. He acknowledged that Russia's position would be a factor in shaping the US plans.

"The Russians, because of their long-standing political ties, do have political weight" in Uzbekistan, said the official, speaking on condition he not be named.

"We will be watching to see how they deal with the Karimov government" as US policy evolves, he said.

An important ally of Russia for years, Karimov has also become a crucial partner for the US? since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks "and that's not something you can ignore in the calculus," the official said.

He asserted there were no "fundamental differences" between Moscow and Washington in their analyses of the instability in Central Asia, but then went on to list a series of fundamental differences between US and Russian strategists in evaluating the recent unrest.

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