Fri, May 13, 2005 page5

• China most fears a North Korean political meltdown

  • AFP
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  China is more concerned about regime meltdown in North Korea than its development of nuclear weapons and is unlikely to cave in to US calls to cut oil supplies and exercise more "robust diplomacy," according to analysts.

  "There is no question that China fears instability and regime change in North Korea more than it fears nuclear weapons," said Brad Glosserman, a North Asia expert at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum, a foreign policy research institute.

  "China wants North Korea as a buffer state, it wants [North Korea leader] Kim Jong-il in power. They know him and they know he is not the threat the US makes him out to be. The big question would be who would take Kim's place. There are still people in North Korea worse than Kim, someone without his restraint," he said.

  The US is pressuring China to push its Stalinist neighbor harder. Washington is counting on China, North Korea's closest ally, to persuade it back to the negotiations that also include Russia, Japan and South and which collapsed last June after three sessions.

  Pyongyang has cited alleged US intentions to topple its government as its primary reason for pulling out of the talks and on February 10 announced that it possesses nuclear weapons. But so far Beijing has resisted any punitive actions, rebuffing a US request to cut oil supplies to the insular and unpredictable Marxist state.

  David Zweig, a political analyst at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said this stance would likely continue. Like Glosserman, he agrees that collapse of the Kim dictatorship, which could be precipitated by sanctions, would be a disaster that China was not willing to let happen.

  "A meltdown of the regime is of more concern that developing nuclear weapons. They are afraid of any scenario that would precipitate collapse. It could easily cause millions of refugees to flood over the border into China, South Korea could take over North Korea, US troops could be on China's border," he said.

  Beijing's reluctance to act, however, would all change if North Korea carried out a nuclear test, said Lee Dong-bok, a Seoul-based security expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

  "Down the road, when the time comes, China has in mind the possibility of imposing certain sanctions -- suspending oil supplies, grain supplies and deploying its military to seal the border," he said.

  "If there's a nuclear test, China will take this very seriously and it would move to the next stage of its policy, perhaps sanctions. There's a very big chance that China would also agree to bring the matter to the Security Council," he said.

  The US has suggested this. North Korea said it would be an act of war. On Wednesday, Thomas Schieffer, the US ambassador to Japan, was quoted as confirming North Korea had begun preparations for a nuclear weapons test after months of bellicose declarations. North Korea is estimated to have as many as eight nuclear weapons, but has never tested one so far.

  Despite deflecting US pressure, Zweig said there was a clique in China who felt the government was being short-sighted.

  "While many fear regime change, others in China feel the government is being short-sighted and a nuclear-armed North Korea could easily become a foe rather than a friend down the line. And all the time China is treading water, North Korea is moving forward in its nuclear programs," he said, adding that China was banking on North Korea not carrying out a nuclear test, and contrary to beliefs did not have as much leverage as given credit, limiting the extent of its strong-arm tactics.

  "The bottom line really is that Beijing doesn't have that leverage, and the degree to which it does have leverage is such that it can't afford to use it or it we will lose it," he said.
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