To those who view this year's presidential race as a battle between politically polarized red and blue states, New Jersey has usually been viewed as so unquestionably Democratic that it could be colored somewhere between midnight and navy.
But after trailing Kerry by 10 points in New Jersey as recently as late August, US President George W. Bush has sustained a bounce he received after the Republican convention, and three surveys released within the past 10 days indicate that the race for New Jersey's 15 electoral votes is now a statistical dead heat.
No one is certain whether Bush's surge represents a lasting shift or a momentary blip during a period when the presidential race has veered erratically between fierce personal attacks and withering exchanges about foreign policy. But the varying explanations for the tightening race offer a glimpse of the challenges facing Kerry as the campaign enters its final weeks.
As Republicans strategists predicted earlier this year, the message of their convention in Manhattan, which portrayed Bush as an unflinching avenger in the war on terror, seems to have resonated in New Jersey, which lost 700 people died in the 9/11 attacks, and where the gaping absence on the New York skyline is a backdrop of daily life. The state's Democrats, meanwhile, have spent the past two months buried in an avalanche of bad news: Sordid corruption investigations involving Governor James McGreevey's aides and contributors and McGreevey's resignation amid a sex scandal.
Beyond those local factors, Kerry's struggles in New Jersey seem to mirror national trends, in which he has lost ground among swing voters, independents and soft Democrats after the Republican National Convention. So while a majority of New Jerseyans disapprove of Bush's performance as president -- and oppose his stands on issues from the war in Iraq and health care to the economy and gay marriage -- Republicans succeeded in focusing the race on Bush's strongest issue: The war on terror.
"Voters trust Bush to do a better job on terrorism, and they see terrorism as more important than the economy or health care, which are Kerry's issues," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University poll released on Tuesday that found the candidates each polling 48 percent among likely voters, with 2 percent supporting Ralph Nader. The margin of sampling error for the survey, conducted from Sept. 16 to Sept. 19, was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Despite the movement in the polls, neither side is willing to declare New Jersey a true battleground. Strategists for Bush are watching the state closely, according to Reed Dickens, a spokesman for the Bush-Cheney national campaign.
But other than a visit by the first lady, Laura Bush, the campaign has not allocated any additional resources for the state.
Democrats say that during the past two weeks, Kerry's retooled campaign has begun laying out a more aggressive case against the administration's record on terrorism and Iraq, and are confident that Kerry will rebound.
With its strong unions, vibrant immigrant communities, tolerant views on social issues and concern for the environment, New Jersey has become exceedingly friendly terrain for Democrats during the past two decades.
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