"This is a long-term development strategy: to secure energy supplies in the surrounding sea area," Yang said. "Securing their maritime interests is vital for their economic and future survival."
Almost all of China's energy imports flow through the Malacca Strait, a narrow sea lane vulnerable to pirate attack. Terrorists have yet to strike there but security experts fear they may.
Oil accounts for 22 percent of China's total energy mix and a third comes from imports. The world's second-largest oil consumer will see oil accounting for 31 percent of its energy mix by 2020.
To protect those imports and expand the range of its influence, China takes a two-pronged strategy by spending on naval modernization and signing trade deals with neighbors.
But by 2020, it may only just be able to command a world-class navy. While Chinese submarines can now ply up to 500 nautical miles off shore, above the waves its ships still sail in a range little beyond 300 to 500 nautical miles from the coast.
"They will not be able to project their power anywhere beyond their immediate coast areas for at least 10 years, and maybe not for 15 to 20 years," Metaparti said.
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